The draft national targets put the EU right next to REPowerEU

These updated ambitions set the EU on course to achieve around 650 GW of solar energy by 2030, more than three times the 2022 target of 195 GW. Wind capacity is expected to reach 450 GW, more than twice as much as in 2022, i.e. 204 GW. However, these expected amounts are still far from the European Commission’s estimates estimates will be needed to achieve the EU energy goals of 750 GW of solar energy and 500 GW of wind energy by 2030.

According to the reported targets, the EU’s solar fleet will grow by an average of 14% per year between 2023 and 2030. Among member states, Germany and Spain have made some of the most striking increases in solar targets, adding a whopping 139 GW in total. Several countries that previously had very low targets now plan to play a more significant role for solar energy by 2030, such as Poland, Lithuania and Ireland, which have increased their targets by 4, 6 and 20 times respectively. Portugal also forecasts strong growth, with a 6-fold increase in its fleet compared to 2023. The Netherlands, currently a leader in solar energy, is the only major power producer that has not increased its solar capacity target at all compared to 2019 – and this is a goal just 3 GW (about a year of installation) away from being achieved. Estonia’s target generally assumes no further growth in 2023-2030. Greece also lacks ambition for a country with such high potential, with projected growth of just 11% year-on-year, below the EU average. This would require average annual installations with a capacity of 900 MW, while connections in 2023 would be almost twice as large (1.7 GW). Other countries already approaching their 2030 targets include Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Sweden, all of which could realistically aim higher.

Several countries have significantly increased their wind energy ambitions, including Bulgaria, Estonia, Denmark, Lithuania and Sweden, all of which approximately doubled (or more) their 2019 targets. However, France did not increase its wind capacity target in these five period of a year. Several countries where wind energy development has remained stagnant have set targets to signal a return to activity, such as Latvia, Romania, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Portugal. Europe’s largest wind energy producers, Germany and Spain, will need to increase their average annual energy use by 4-5 times to achieve their ambitious goals. On the other hand, despite recent strong growth, Finland and Sweden are the only significant wind energy producers whose annual energy use will slow in the coming years. This is particularly dramatic in Finland, where the 2030 target of 7.2 GW has already been almost achieved in 2023 (6.9 GW). This level is unrealistically low considering the number of existing projects, even considering that this number is based on a scenario involving only existing measures.