Sunrun (RUN) Earnings Expected to Increase: Is It Worth Buying?

Wall Street expects year-over-year earnings growth on lower revenues when Sunrun (RUN) reports earnings for the quarter ended December 2019. While this widely known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company’s earnings picture, it is a significant factor that perhaps the short-term share price is influenced by the comparison of actual results with these estimates.

The earnings report, due on February 27, 2020, could help stocks climb higher if these key numbers are better than expected. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock could fall.

While management’s discussion of business conditions during the earnings call will largely determine the durability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it is worth having partial insight into the likelihood of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

In the upcoming report, this distributor of solar energy products is expected to post quarterly earnings per share of $0.27 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +640%.

Revenue is expected to be $221.69 million, down 7.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate the trend of change

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 66.67% down to the current level over the last 30 days. This broadly reflects how analysts covering the data have collectively re-evaluated their initial estimates during this period.

Investors should note that the aggregate change does not necessarily reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each major analyst.

Price, consensus and EPS surprise

Whisper about earnings

Revisions to estimates prior to a company’s earnings release provide an indication of business conditions in the period in which the earnings are expected to be released. Our proprietary surprise prediction model, the Zacks Earnings ESP, is based on this insight.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimates to the Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter; The Most Accurate Estimate is a newer revision of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea is that analysts reviewing their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants had previously predicted.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates. However, the predictive power of the model is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks in this combination deliver a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of its Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative earnings ESP reading does not mean a loss of earnings. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative ESP readings and/or a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How have Sunrun numbers changed?

For Sunrun, the Most Accurate Estimate is above the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting analysts have recently become optimistic about the company’s earnings prospects. This resulted in an earnings ESP of +121.81%.

On the other hand, the stock currently has a Zacks Rank of #3.

So this combination indicates that Sunrun is likely to beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does the history of surprising results have any clue?

When calculating future earnings estimates, analysts often consider how well a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past. So it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming issue.

For the last reported quarter, Sunrun was expected to post earnings of $0.27 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.23, resulting in a surprise of -14.81%.

The company has failed to beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Bottom line

Improving or lacking earnings may not be the only basis for a stock’s value rising or falling. Many stocks lose value despite good earnings because of other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help many stocks gain despite losing profits.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to exceed earnings expectations increases your chances of success. Therefore, it is worth checking the company’s Earnings Rank and Zacks Rank before their quarterly release. Use our Earnings ESP filter to find the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

Sunrun seems like a compelling earnings beat candidate. However, investors should also pay attention to other factors if they want to bet on or stay away from these stocks ahead of an earnings release.

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