Bola Tinubu: Is Nigeria on the right track after a year of his presidency?

Nigerians love their football, but for many it is no longer the main topic of conversation.

On the first anniversary of Bola Tinubu’s presidency, Abubakar Sheka, who sells bread on the streets of the northern city of Kano, says his customers are now mainly focusing on what they can afford.

“Football talk is only sweet when the belly is full, but at the moment many Nigerians are struggling to feed themselves, which makes people always talk about the economy when they get together,” the 36-year-old told the BBC Above the Noise morning exercise.

He also noted that fewer people are buying bread as the price has more than doubled since May last year, reflecting the rise in flour prices, cutting off many families from one of the country’s staple foods.

Inflation coupled with the depreciation of the naira currency has been a major theme for much of the last 12 months.

While Nigeria has been hit by the same difficult economic headwinds as much of the rest of the world, some of what has happened is a direct result of the policies of President Tinubu, who was sworn in exactly one year ago.

The new president, then 71, won the election in a landslide, winning 37% of the vote – a result that was later challenged in court. His task was to unite the country.

He also faced financial difficulties, as well as concerns about kidnapping and corruption.

Amid the pomp and high spirits on Inauguration Day, the president made an important announcement.

“Fuel subsidies are gone,” he told Nigerians, giving no timetable for the policy or any measures that could soften the inevitable blow.

Subsidies that have been in place for decades have cost the nation huge sums of money that Tinubu says could be better spent elsewhere.

“President Bola Tinubu’s inaugural speech started around 10 a.m. and by 11 a.m., lines are already forming across Nigeria to buy fuel,” says public affairs analyst Hashim Abubakar.

“This announcement caused an immediate sharp increase in the prices of fuel and other items.”

Annual inflation has already reached an 18-year high of 22% and, partly as a result of the removal of fuel subsidies, has risen to almost 34%. Wages were not maintained.

The government also ended the policy of pegging the value of the naira to the US dollar, which led to its radical depreciation. While in May last year, 10,000 naira could buy you $22, now you will only be able to buy $6.80.

This has made everything imported more expensive.

And all this has pushed more and more people into poverty.

Abubakar Ameer distributes food to the needy in Kano. He emphasized that over the last year the number of people seeking help has more than doubled.

“We have had to reduce the rations we usually give to others so that everyone can eat something,” says the BBC.

The government gave cash transfers of $54 (£42) to the poorest families over three months, but not everyone was helped.

Tinubu Ministers are aware of the hardships that many are currently experiencing.

Last week, Economic Planning Minister Atiku Bagudu apologized “for the pain (the policy) may cause,” but added that “they are necessary.”

He characterized these measures as part of an overdue economic restructuring that would lead to long-term stability.

The argument is that extremely expensive fuel subsidies and the inflated value of the naira are harming the economy.

“This administration has implemented significant economic reforms aimed at stabilizing our economy and supporting sustainable growth,” Tinubu administration official George Akume said while presenting an annual progress report to the government.

The reforms were also aimed at increasing the confidence of foreign investors. The amount of investment money flowing into the country peaked just over a decade ago and has remained relatively low since then.

“I believe the foreign investment situation in the country is starting to improve thanks to the government’s economic policies,” says Victor Aluyi, senior vice president of financial firm Sankore.

“The improvements are not huge, but they are improvements compared to when things were really low in previous years.”

One of the other big challenges facing the president in his first year in office was security, amid brutal attacks and kidnappings that plagued parts of the country under his predecessor.

In terms of kidnappings, the northwestern part of the country was hit particularly hard. But according to Acled, which monitors conflict and violence, the number of abduction cases in the region dropped from a peak early last year to March.

Nevertheless, two high-profile mass kidnappings in March and one last week in different parts of the country showed that more needs to be done to ensure people’s safety.

The government defended its record.

Defense Minister Mohammed Badaru recently said that security forces killed more than 9,300 “bandits” and insurgents last year and 7,000 were arrested.

When it comes to fighting corruption, the president came with some praise.

“So far, the Tinubu-led administration has not remained silent on the issue and has shown political will to confront the hydra-headed monster,” says Kola Adeyemi, chairperson of the NGO Anti-Corruption Awareness.

The suspension of Humanitarian Affairs Minister Betty Edu in January over alleged waste of public money was seen as a bold move. The investigation is ongoing and the minister denies any irregularities.

A former top Economic and Financial Crimes Commission official, speaking to the BBC on condition of anonymity, says despite early signs the president must do more.

“Corruption has been a huge problem for decades, so it will be unfair to judge it based on one year in office – a lot needs to be done to stamp it out.”

In all policy areas, the administration will insist that people feel the benefits of its policies.

But for Mr. Sheka, the bread seller, time is running out.

“If the economic situation does not improve, I will either find something else that will allow me to earn more money, or I will completely give up selling bread and find another job, because there are things I need to take care of.”