Abundance of clean energy, investments in new technologies are the key to decarbonization of the aluminum industry by 2050

Report details Ways to reduce emissions, first mover advantage in North America

ARLINGTON, Va., May 29, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — A new report from consulting firm ICF and the Aluminum Association, Pathways to decarbonization: North American aluminum roadmap, highlights potential strategies to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the North American (United States and Canada) aluminum industry by mid-century. The roadmap sets out theoretical pathways to achieve industry-wide reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 targets.

The report also points out that the North American region has a significant first-mover advantage in terms of the carbon footprint of its aluminum products – which is approximately 50% lower than the global average. This advantage is attributed to the use of low-emission primary aluminum, increased recycling and voluntary emissions reduction efforts over the past few decades. However, achieving such aggressive emissions reduction goals by mid-century will require a society-wide approach to decarbonization and tens of billions of dollars in public and private investment.

“Our industry is proud of the vital role we play in the clean energy transition and the progress we have made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the last several decades,” said Charles Johnson, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association. “The average carbon dioxide emissions associated with producing a pound of aluminum in North America have fallen by more than half since 1991, giving us a significant advantage over the rest of the world and an opportunity to lead the way in the production of lower carbon metals. But we know that much more needs to be done to achieve net zero targets by 2050.”

According to the roadmap, achieving net zero targets will require reducing emissions from aluminum production by 24% by 2030; 63% by 2040; and 92% by 2050 compared to the 2021 emissions baseline. Production is expected to increase by around 80% over this period, driven by increasing demand for the metal to support sustainability efforts across sectors .

The roadmap identifies several key pathways to achieving dramatic 2050 emissions reduction targets:

Aluminum production technology and performance improvements: Development and implementation of new primary aluminum production technologies, such as inert anode smelting and the chloride process to remove direct emissions; changes in current alumina production methods; and improving energy efficiency at the plant level.
Alternative fuels and carbon capture: Transition to new energy sources such as green hydrogen; electrification of furnaces; and implementation of carbon capture and storage technology.
Network decarbonization: Deploying clean energy technologies to decarbonize the U.S. power grid based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) “high absorption” scenario enabled by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

In addition to the pathways described above, more efficient aluminum recycling could dramatically accelerate industrial emissions reductions. The model includes both a limited scrap use scenario (as a reference point) and an optimal scrap use scenario. The optimal use scenario eliminates an additional 160 million metric tons of CO2e emissions by 2050 in addition to the 127 million metric tons of reduced CO2e emissions assumed in the limited scenario. This total reduction is equivalent to taking over 68 million cars off the road in a year.

In total, about one-third of the required emissions reductions by 2050 could come from improvements in aluminum production technologies, over which the industry itself has the most control. The remaining two-thirds of the reduction must come from a combination of newly developed, low-cost production technologies; implementing state and federal investments in research and infrastructure; and national policies supporting the clean energy transition.

Third-party analysts estimate that achieving global climate goals by 2050 will take around $1 trillion across the global primary production value chain – mainly energy supplies and steel mills –. With primary aluminum in North America accounting for approximately 6% of global production, conservative estimates suggest around $60 billion of public and private investment in the region is needed to achieve global net-zero climate goals in the primary production segment alone.

“This study sends a strong signal that decarbonizing the energy sector is a prerequisite for decarbonizing not only the aluminum industry, but also other heavy industries,” Johnson added. “Achieving these ambitious goals by mid-century will require a society-wide approach to decarbonization. The aluminum industry will not be able to do this alone.”

The roadmap shows that the North American region has a significant first-mover advantage in reducing emissions compared to other parts of the world. Aluminum and aluminum products produced in the country are half as carbon-intensive as aluminum products produced in the rest of the world. And aluminum products produced in China have, on average, 2.5 times more carbon dioxide emissions than aluminum produced in North America. Assuming the global aluminum industry makes radical efforts to reduce emissions, it will take the rest of the world 8 to 10 years to produce aluminum semi-finished products at the same carbon intensity as North America today.

“Our action plan clearly shows that importing high-carbon aluminum from outside North America to meet growing demand will only increase global emissions, cost jobs and weaken supply chain resilience,” Johnson said. “We need to produce more aluminum here.”

To support the transition to lower carbon emissions, domestic aluminum production, federal and state policymakers and regulators must:

To ensure the availability, abundance and affordability of clean energy to reduce emissions throughout aluminum production.
Support policies and technologies that increase aluminum recycling such as better scrap sorting, circular materials management and recycling incentive schemes.
Force A a fair international trade system and effective monitoring which provides transparency on greenhouse gas emissions related to international trade flows.
Deliver research and development incentives for the use of clean aluminum production technologies in primary aluminum smelting, alumina refining, scrap melting and semi-fabrication.
Facilitate access to capital for manufacturers to implement industrial decarbonization technologies at the plant level.

The Pathways to decarbonization: North American aluminum roadmap was developed to help governments, researchers, businesses and other key stakeholders identify and visualize strategic options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the North American aluminum industry. The roadmap used a base year of 2021 based on actual market and emissions data, as well as a dynamic Excel-based tool that inventoried emissions for aluminum operations in North America. This approach will enable the industry to actively monitor its performance over time. To learn more about potential aluminum decarbonization pathways in North America, visit https://www.aluminum.org/Decarb.

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About the Aluminum Association
The Aluminum Association represents the full value chain of aluminum production and jobs in the United States, including companies that produce 70% of the aluminum and aluminum products shipped to North America. The association is the industry’s leading voice, developing global standards, business intelligence, sustainability research and industry knowledge for member companies, policymakers and the general public. Aluminum helps manufacturers make good products great and great products even better – from fuel-efficient vehicles and sustainable packaging to tomorrow’s infrastructure and beyond. The industry supports $228 billion in economic activity and creates nearly 700,000 jobs in the United States. Over the past decade, aluminum companies have invested more than $10 billion in U.S. manufacturing to power the next generation. More information can be found at https://www.aluminum.org.

CONTACT: Matt Meenan Aluminum Association 703-358-2977 [email protected]