Global online retail sales are expected to reach $6.8 trillion by 2028

A report by research and advisory firm Forrester shows that total global online retail sales will grow from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028.

Online retail sales will record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% over a five-year period, according to the Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, which includes data from 40 countries around the world.

Despite growth, 76% of global retail sales will still be offline in 2028, reflecting the importance of omnichannel strategies for retailers, according to Forrester.

In the Asia-Pacific region, online retail sales in the five largest countries – China, South Korea, Japan, India and Australia – are forecast to grow from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028. Southeast Asia’s six largest countries – Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore – e-commerce retail sales will grow from $93 billion in 2023 to $193 billion in 2028.

U.S. online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total U.S. retail sales. Online retail sales in Canada will reach $83 billion, while in the six largest Latin American countries – Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Chile – online retail sales will grow to $192 billion by 2028.

In Western Europe, online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion in 2028. Online retail sales in the five largest countries in Eastern Europe – Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary – will reach 126 billion dollars in 2028.

“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, live streaming and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester.

As growth varies significantly by region, retailers should thoroughly understand their priority markets and adjust their strategies accordingly, Miglani added.