Global online retail sales will grow by 8.9% annually, reaching $6.8 trillion in 2028.

Retailer investments in genAI, the development of online marketplaces and higher digital literacy will continue to drive global online retail growth

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., May 30, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) forecasts that total global online retail sales will grow from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%. According to the Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028 report, which presents a five-year forecast of total online and offline retail sales in 40 countries around the world, despite the growth of e-commerce, 76% (or $21.9 trillion) of global retail sales in 2028 r. will still take place offline. As a result, retailers must continue to invest in omnichannel strategies that ensure a seamless shopping experience, both online and offline.

The report further stated that e-commerce retail maturity varies across the world. Advanced economies including the US, UK and South Korea are more mature due to greater internet penetration and digital skills. However, as smartphones and mobile commerce become more widespread, emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America are catching up. This rapid adoption is changing the global e-commerce landscape, creating new opportunities for both businesses and consumers.

Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, Forrester expects online retail sales to continue to accelerate globally. Below are some noteworthy findings from the report by world region.

Americans:

In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total US retail sales.
E-commerce is more mature in the U.S. compared to Canada, with online retail sales in Canada expected to reach $83 billion by 2028. Canada lags behind the United States in e-commerce penetration due to lower population density, smaller market size and slower consumer adoption.
In Latin America, online retail sales in the six largest countries – Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Chile – will grow from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion in 2028.

Europe:

In Western European countries – including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK – online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion in 2028, with online retail penetration increasing from 15% to 20%. The UK will remain the largest e-commerce retail market, followed by Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
In Eastern Europe, online retail penetration is half that in Western Europe. Forrester forecasts that online retail sales in the five largest countries in Eastern Europe – Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary – will grow from $72 billion in 2023 to $126 billion in 2028, with the region leading Russia and Poland.

Asia Pacific:

In the Asia-Pacific region, online retail sales in the five largest countries – China, South Korea, Japan, India and Australia – are expected to grow from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028, with China being the leader in the region. China and South Korea are the two countries with the highest e-commerce penetration in the world, and by 2028, online retail penetration in each will be over 40%.
In Southeast Asia’s six largest countries – Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore – e-commerce retail sales reached $93 billion in 2023 and will grow to $193 billion by 2028, accounting for 17.4 % of total retail sales. Indonesia leads the region in terms of online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. The Philippines and Vietnam will grow at a CAGR of over 20% over the next five years, outperforming other countries in the region.

“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, live streaming and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However, the maturity and growth opportunities of e-commerce vary significantly by region. To be successful, retailers and brands must therefore thoroughly understand the key retail and e-commerce growth drivers in their priority markets and adapt their strategies accordingly.”

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About Forrester
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research and consulting companies in the world. We help leaders across technology, customer service, digital, marketing, sales and product functions leverage customer obsession to accelerate growth. With Forrester’s proprietary research, consulting and events, leaders around the world can be bold at work – leading change and putting customers at the center of their leadership, strategy and operations. Our unique insights are based on annual research of over 700,000 consumers, business leaders and technology leaders around the world; rigorous and objective research methodologies, including Forrester Wave™ assessments; over 100 million votes back in real time; and the shared wisdom of our clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.

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