Rethink Energy presents a comprehensive report on electrolyzer market trends until 2040

The report draws on broad industry engagement and offers critical insights for stakeholders navigating the complexities of the hydrogen sector.

By attending key hydrogen industry events in Europe in recent months, Rethink Energy captured the prevailing sentiment and identified key industry challenges. An important theme emerging from these discussions is the urgent need for a clear legal framework.

The cornerstone of green hydrogen, the electrolyzer market is driven by predictable future demand for green hydrogen. Reliable demand forecasts are essential to scale investment across the supply chain, starting with electrolyzer plants.

The report also addresses the key issue of financing. A clear regulatory framework is essential to secure the capital flows necessary to initiate and sustain large-scale projects. The report emphasizes that long-term business plans must be self-sustaining and not based on temporary incentives. For example, the US market has seen a slowdown due to uncertainty around Section 45V and the upcoming elections, while Europe continues to push for greater transparency.

The report details various electrolyzer technologies, including proton exchange membrane (PEM), alkaline technology (ALK), anion exchange membrane (AEM), and solid oxide electrolytic cells (SOEC). Each technology has its advantages and challenges, with ALK being known for lower costs and PEM for better response to intermittent disturbances. Innovations are constantly emerging, with start-ups exploring new materials and operating parameters to increase efficiency and commercial viability.

SOEC, which uses waste heat applications, excels in high efficiency despite the constant challenge of lowering operating temperatures.

Global electrolyzer capacity is expected to increase as multi-gigawatt production facilities come online around the world. Demand for green hydrogen is gaining momentum in sectors such as aviation, shipping and steel production, and major oil producers are also leading efforts to decarbonize their refineries.

Rethink Energy predicts a sharp increase in investment and installed capacity by the end of the decade. The demand for green hydrogen is expected to increase fivefold by 2050, driven by various technological advances and regional market dynamics.

The findings in this report are based on current data, industry trends, executive interviews and insights from leading events in the hydrogen industry. Rethink analyzed production opportunities, political landscapes and key demand sectors to predict the market potential of each technology. The report also examines the geographic distribution of hydrogen use and generation technologies, providing a comprehensive understanding of market impacts.

The report is addressed to stakeholders across the entire hydrogen value chain. Government agencies can use this knowledge to develop national procurement strategies and programs. Energy producers and industry players will benefit from detailed analyzes of current technologies to adapt their future strategies to commercial opportunities.

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