Guess what will drive the majority of retail sales by 2028, according to Forrester?

Global online shopping will be worth $6.8 trillion by 2028, up from $4.4 trillion last year, according to a new Forrester study.

While this represents an increase of more than $2 trillion, the projections are more conservative than other estimates, estimating that e-commerce will be worth $6 trillion in 2024. However, the research firm’s forecasts predict that sales in the larger global retail market will reach $28. 7 trillion dollars.

More from WWD

If the majority of these transactions do not take place online, they will have to come from somewhere else, namely from physical stores.

Despite the turmoil in brick-and-mortar stores and new openings from coast to coast, contrasting with waves of closures at stores like Express, Rue21, Macy’s and others, physical shopping appears to be emerging from the storm. Coresight Research showed this much earlier this month, with analyst Bryan Gildenberg telling WWD: “Despite all the hype about retail apocalypses, chain stores have been on the net opening front in the U.S. since the end of the pandemic.”

Forrester now believes that physical shopping will not only stick around, but will continue to play a significant role in retail, at least for the foreseeable future. It found that as much as 76 percent of the $28.7 trillion in global sales, which equates to $21.9 trillion, will occur offline.

In a blog post on Thursday, Jitender Miglani, lead forecast analyst, explained: “While widespread store closures and social distancing during the pandemic have spurred the growth of e-commerce, growth has reversed in recent years as consumers begin to return to brick-and-mortar stores.”

But he expects e-commerce to “recover momentum” thanks to efforts like shopping deals and generative artificial intelligence initiatives. These efforts are already well underway, with an Nvidia survey conducted in January showing that 98 percent of retailers plan to invest in the technology in the next year and a half.

The story continues

E-commerce will also benefit from other factors, Miglani added, such as channel maturation – think online marketplaces, social commerce, live streaming, direct-to-consumer commerce and more – as well as broader internet access reaching growing numbers of young consumers and not only. innovative payment solutions.

In the United States alone, e-commerce is expected to reach $1.6 trillion within four years, up from $1 trillion in 2023, accounting for 28 percent of all retail sales in that market.

The best of WWD