Research says Thai casino regulations are unlikely to attract U.S. operators

Seaport Research senior analyst Vitaly Umansky raised concerns that Thailand’s nascent casino regulations may not be robust enough to attract major U.S. operators. In a note published Friday, Umansky assessed the potential for U.S. Wynn Resorts to enter the Thai market, suggesting that the current regulatory environment is not yet conducive to such an involvement.

“This market is too early in the process to assess whether Wynn will be able to ultimately engage, but our view on Thailand at this time is that the market will not be ready for the involvement of U.S.-regulated operators,” Umansky said, according to Inside Gaming Asian.

Wynn Resorts, along with other top US operators such as MGM Resorts and Las Vegas Sands (LVS), have shown interest in Thailand. However, their public comments on the prospects for casinos in the country have been cautious, particularly regarding the quality and strength of emerging legislation.

During LVS’s first quarter 2024 earnings call President and CEO Robert Goldstein he described Thailand as a “very, very exciting market” but stressed that it was still in the early stages of the development process. “This is just the beginning… we still need to work on the numbers and understanding them,” Goldstein noted.

While Wynn has shown interest in the Thai market, it is currently pursuing an integrated resort development in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. Wynn Al-Marjan, is scheduled to open in early 2027, will be the only casino in the region. Umansky noted that this UAE property has the potential to generate $300 million in annual cash flow for Wynn, but cautioned that additional casino expansion could impact that forecast.

“We see that the market can support two integrated resorts,” he explained. “The key risk for real estate would be opening a casino in Dubai (vs. Abu Dhabi, which is more likely).”

MGM Resorts has also shown interest in Dubai, where it is developing three hotel brands. However, MGM indicated that Abu Dhabi could be an alternative location if Dubai decides not to allow gaming.

Thailand’s legislation still uncertain

In Thailand, the timeline for introducing legal casino games appears to be long. Initial economic corridors to legal casino gaming in the country may not open until 2029. If the study passed by the House of Representatives receives final government approval, up to eight integrated casino resorts could be established.

Maybank Investment Bank has identified the Eastern Economic Corridor as the most likely location for the first legal casinos in Thailand. The development period could span approximately five years, assuming integrated resort offerings are approved this year. The timeline shows Thailand’s first casino could begin operations before or around the same time as MGM Resorts International’s $10 billion integrated resort in Osaka, Japan, scheduled to open in 2030.

While the Thai government continues to consider casino regulations, the cautious stance of U.S. operators underscores the importance of a solid legal framework for attracting foreign investment. Without strict regulations, Thailand may struggle to attract major U.S. casino companies to its growing gaming market.