Why is Century (CENX) up 18.1% since its last earnings report?

A month has passed since Century Aluminum’s (CENX) last earnings report. Shares have risen about 18.1% in that time, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Century due for a correction? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the key drivers.

Century Aluminum’s first quarter earnings and sales estimates

Century Aluminum reported first-quarter 2024 earnings of $2.26 per share. This compares favorably with the year-ago quarter’s loss of 42 cents.

Excluding one-time items, loss per share for the reported quarter was 39 cents, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 19 cents.

Revenues and deliveries

During the quarter, the company generated net sales of $489.5 million, down approximately 11.4% year-over-year. This figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $520.3 million.

Primary aluminum deliveries amounted to 174,627 tonnes, down approximately 3.6% year-on-year. Shipments increased 0.4% sequentially.

Financial

At the end of the quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $93.5 million, an increase of 207.5% year over year.

Net cash used in operating activities was $14.8 million in the quarter, compared to $0.2 million in the same period a year earlier.

Perspectives

Century expects second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $25 million to $35 million, adjusted for higher London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and regional premiums, partially offset by the timing of partial power cuts imposed on the Grundartangi facility.

How have estimates changed since then?

Over the last month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimate revisions.

As a result of these changes, the consensus estimate moved by 140%.

VGM results

Century currently has an average growth score of C, which indicates the same momentum score. Plotting a somewhat similar path, the stock is rated a B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile within this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has a Total VGM Score of B. If you’re not focused on one strategy, this score should interest you.

Perspectives

Estimates for this company show an upward trend, and the scale of this revision looks promising. Notably, Century carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect a linear rate of return on the stock over the next few months.

Industry player performance

Century is part of the Zacks Metal Products – Supply & Manufacturing industry. Over the past month, shares in the same industry TriMas (TRS) have gained 1.8%. More than a month ago, the company published its results for the quarter ended March 2024.

The story continues

In the most recent quarter, TriMas reported revenues of $227.1 million, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. EPS of $0.37 for the same period compared to $0.30 a year ago.

For the current quarter, TriMas is expected to report earnings per share of $0.51, representing a +2% change from the prior-year quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1% over the past 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for TriMas. The stock also has a VGM Rating of B.

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