Climate change and faulty policies lead Pakistan to food insecurity: report

Islamabad (Pakistan), June 1: In recent months, farmers across Pakistan have taken to the streets in protest following the government’s decision to reduce wheat procurement quotas.

The heart of these protests lies in Sindh province, famous for its early harvests. However, even two months after the culmination of this year’s wheat harvest, the deadlock persists, according to ARY News.

“The government had fixed a fixed rate for the purchase of wheat and would distribute bags of wheat directly to farmers. However, some officials in the food department are allegedly selling these bags to small traders in exchange for bribes,” revealed Akram Khaskheli, President of Sindh-based Hari Welfare Association in an interview with Dialogue Earth.

Khaskheli highlighted the consequences of government mismanagement, warning of potential crop losses that could worsen food insecurity despite the availability of wheat.

Significant government purchases of wheat, typically amounting to around 20 percent of production or 5.6 million tonnes, at the minimum supported price, play a key role in ensuring market stability. However, the current crisis is intertwined with climate change, throwing Pakistan’s agricultural sector into chaos.

This crisis has its roots in the massive floods that hit Pakistan from July to September 2022, inundating a third of the country’s districts. According to ARY News, a confluence of climatic factors, including a warming ocean, culminated in extreme rainfall that significantly affected 15 percent of Pakistan’s farmland.

In areas such as Johi in Dadu district of Sindh province, the effects of flooding continued for several seasons. Talib Gadehi, a forty-four-year-old farmer who owns 350 acres of farmland with his brothers, told how they struggled to till the land for four consecutive seasons in two years.

“The dam collapse affected approximately 100,000 acres of land, rendering it barren. This situation has triggered mass migration from the area,” Gadehi lamented.

These unfavorable conditions have contributed to Pakistan’s decline from 99th position in the global hunger index in 2022 to 102nd position in 2023.

According to a January 2024 analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization, poverty rates increased from 34% in 2022 to 39% in 2023, mainly due to increased food prices, which have further strained the purchasing power of households in difficult situation. The Integrated Food Security Phase classification showed that between April and October 2023, more than 10 million people experienced high levels of acute food insecurity.

Wheat, which constitutes 72% of Pakistan’s staple food, plays a key role in solving the problem of food security and inflation. However, the interim government, formed ahead of the 2024 national elections, has opted to import wheat in late 2023 to ease food shortages and rising prices. Unfortunately, before the decision was made, the agricultural sector rebounded, resulting in oversupply and subsequent farmer protests.

Muhammad Arif Goheer, head of the agriculture, forestry and land use section at the Global Climate Change Impact Research Center in Islamabad, justified the decision to import wheat on the issue of affordability.

Despite domestic availability, high prices made grain unaffordable to the poor. While imports have pushed wheat prices well below the minimum support price, they have sparked discontent among farmers expecting a successful season after two years of hardship.

“The ultimate solution to the problem of inflation and food security is to adopt precision agriculture and use high-yield seeds,” Goheer said.

However, Khaskheli of the Hari Welfare Association highlighted the lack of assistance provided to farmers in adopting modern farming practices. “From beginning to end, growers remain helpless. They face obstacles in accessing quality seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, forcing them to sell their crops at below market prices, ultimately affecting yields and food security,” Khaskheli lamented.

The ongoing protests and Pakistan’s dismal rankings on the global hunger index highlight the crucial role of agricultural policy in ensuring food security and social stability. Although Pakistan has made commendable progress in wheat production over the years, ranking as the 7th largest producer in the world, its average wheat yields remain modest compared to leading countries such as New Zealand.

Bashir Ahmad, director of the Institute for Climate, Energy and Water Resources at the Federal Ministry of National Food Security and Research, described climate change as a growing challenge hampering productivity in the agricultural sector.

He explained how Pakistan’s heavy dependence on irrigation, 60-70% of which comes from melting snow and glaciers, has been disrupted by global warming and climate change, affecting both the amount and timing of water availability.

Changing rainfall patterns have further exacerbated the water scarcity problem, with intense and short-duration rainfall leading to soil erosion and hampering rain-fed agriculture in regions such as Potohar and northern areas.

“Research shows yield reductions of 6 to 15 percent, particularly for rainfed crops such as wheat, due to changing rainfall patterns. This reduction does not take into account the adverse impact of heatwaves and floods,” Ahmad explained.

In cold regions such as Gilgit Baltistan, early ripening of fruits such as oranges due to inadequate cooling hours has become a common problem. Moreover, limited water supply for irrigation has forced Punjab to become more dependent on groundwater, contributing to the decline in groundwater levels, according to the report.

Zafar Ali Khokhar, director of agronomy at the Sakrand Wheat Research Institute in Sindh, proposed that local seed varieties could potentially double current production levels. However, challenges remain in ensuring the availability of high-quality seeds.

“Our institute has developed varieties that produce 80 tons of wheat per acre, which is proven by consistent application. However, the responsibility for ensuring an adequate supply of seeds rests with responsible producers. Currently, only 30 per cent of the total seed demand is high-yield wheat seeds supplied by the government or private companies,” Khokhar revealed.

Aamer Hayat Bhandara, member of the Prime Minister’s Committee on Improving Agricultural Yields in 2023, stressed the urgency of action. “If previous governments have not prioritized providing farmers with modern techniques, technology and accessibility, despite their immense importance in the agriculture sector, it is imperative to focus on these aspects now,” Bhandara stressed.

The intertwined challenges of climate change, flawed policies and inadequate support mechanisms for farmers are pushing Pakistan towards food insecurity. According to ARY News, urgent and concerted efforts are needed to comprehensively address these issues and secure the country’s agricultural sector and food security.

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