No major departures are expected from the new government on foreign policy

Overall, experts mentioned China, India’s neighborhood, the Middle East and economic diplomacy as the main areas of the new government’s foreign policy. They say India will also work very closely with the US and members of the Four Nations on international security areas in the Indo-Pacific, but beyond that no major departure is expected.

Former diplomat Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin, who served as India’s permanent representative to the UN, is confident that China will continue to be in the spotlight as its influence is multi-dimensional and goes beyond borders and foreign policy. “The government’s other priorities will be to address challenges in India’s neighborhood. In addition, the newly elected government will focus on economic diplomacy, especially the culmination of free trade agreements (FTAs). We have made some progress in the negotiations on a free trade agreement with the European Union. The second will be the free trade agreement with the UK, which is nearing its culmination. They will be the main item on the agenda.

Finally, the new government will pay special attention to ties with the US, Russia and the Middle East,” he said.

India’s rapidly growing market and economy make it a lucrative option for developed and developing countries for free trade agreements. A trade deal with India would allow countries to access the Indian market with fewer or no import duties, giving their companies an advantage.

Former ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, who is a distinguished member of Gateway House, a Mumbai-based think tank, says the new government is likely to focus on four key foreign policy priorities. These include relationships with major powers such as the US, the European Union, Russia, China and Japan. The government will also try to organize a Quad Summit, which will be a forum for developing relations with the USA, Japan and Australia. It is India’s turn to host the summit, which will also bring the US president to India.

Ambassador Bhatia said efforts would also be made to hold the annual summit with Russia, which was disrupted, and reset the strained and frozen relations with China, which have been strained since the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. Another priority is cooperation with neighbors and there is a good chance that leaders from India’s neighboring countries and extended neighborhood will be invited again to the oath-taking ceremony of the newly elected Prime Minister. He said they would focus on resetting relations with Pakistan, although others said Islamabad might not be a priority given the army’s role and hostility towards the country. Removing misunderstandings with the Maldives or taking a special initiative with respect to Burma.”

But it may not be that simple, according to other sources who told StratNews Global that there should be no illusions about Beijing. Their feeling is that the Chinese see India in the US camp and formulate their policies accordingly.

Ambassador Bhatia explained: “The third priority is about broader issues. UN Security Council reforms that will continue to receive attention. As for Africa, they need to regain momentum because there was a gap after the G20 summit. We need to generate resources to develop a stronger relationship with Africa. Yet another issue concerns Western Asia, which is still burning. The war is still going on. India will still be involved. Talking about war, it also remains to be seen whether India will participate in the peace conference on Ukraine convened by Switzerland.

Former Ambassador Surendra Kumar, who has served in many countries including the US and UK, and is the founding president of the Indo-American Friendship Association, says Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal equation with former US President Donald Trump and current US President Joe Biden will help India’s relations -Americans remain at the highest level regardless of who becomes the new US president. Defense cooperation with the US will continue to develop. He added that India’s differences on Gaza, Iran, Russia and Ukraine would continue to be manageable. Strong ties with Europe, Africa and the Gulf region will be further strengthened.

Ambassador Kumar said that some improvement can be expected in relations with India’s immediate neighbors and beyond. He added that new moves towards China and Pakistan should not be surprising, although the latter will pose a challenge.

India will also remain active in the Indo-Pacific region, Quad, I2U2 and IMEC as the Israel-Gaza conflict subsides.

He added that since the economy is doing well, further efforts will be made to obtain permanent membership of the UN Security Council.

Renowned economist Professor Prabir De, who works with the Delhi-based RIS (Research and Information System for Developing Countries), sees no noticeable departure from India’s current foreign policy in the new term.

“India’s immediate neighborhood will continue to be given priority. The same will be true for BIMSTEC as the Prime Minister will attend the sixth BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok in September 2024. India will work closely with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Central Asia, Maldives, Myanmar, Iran and Sri Lanka. Central Asia will once again be the focus of the government’s attention. India will also work closely with the US and Quad members on international security areas in the Indo-Pacific. The Middle East will also have priority.”

Professor De added that the newly elected government’s action plans will include the implementation of the India-Central and Eastern Europe Economic Corridor, a renewed focus on ASEAN and East Asia, followed by a free trade agreement. “ Several free trade agreements are being negotiated, as are those with the European Union and the United Kingdom. Free trade agreements will figure prominently in India’s foreign policy. On the economic front, several projects such as global Indian rupee trade and international payments through India’s digital payment system will also get a boost. Efforts will be redoubled to achieve the oft-repeated goal of ensuring India becomes the third largest economy by 2030.”

Maddassir Quamar, associate professor at the Center for West Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, told StratNews Global: “The Middle East will feature prominently in India’s foreign policy. The India-Central and Eastern Europe Economic Corridor, announced at the G20 summit hosted by India in New Delhi last year, is crucial for connectivity. It will take time to implement the agreement and ensure its credibility, but India’s commitment, as well as the seven other partner countries that have signed the agreement, remains intact. This happens regardless of which government comes to power. IMEC remains a priority because if India wants to further expand trade with the Middle East, IMEC will provide the opportunity to trade with the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe as well.

The second element of connectivity is Chahbahar and INSTC. Despite all the challenges, India has consistently invested in the Chabahar port over the last 20 years and this process will continue. These are two parallel tracks. Energy is also a very important element. Similarly, FDI (foreign direct investment) into India from the Gulf region. In terms of security and strategic aspects, the Middle East region is very important due to the trade routes running through the western part of the Indian Ocean. Our solid counter-terrorism cooperation with Middle Eastern countries will also continue.”