Five thoughts on the suddenly scrambling Maple Leafs

TORONTO – Back to back losses – back to back ugly losses at that – and suddenly it’s a tumultuous season for the team. Toronto Maple Leaves.

I have some thoughts!

1. There may be no bigger problem for the Leafs right now than the power play.

The unit has been out of sorts since day one, scoring just 11 percent of goals so far. Three goals against 27 chances to be exact.

The top group has shown the odd sign of life but is still unable to score and is missing key opportunities to get the Leafs back into the game.

On Thursday night, the Leafs were down 1-0 when they got their first chance on the road. blues. Turnovers plagued PP1 and the Leafs got nothing. The Blues scored shortly after with some power play. On their next look, the Leafs held the zone but couldn’t get past shots.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson changed Morgan Rielly He quickly moved into the top group this autumn, and while that provided the odd spark, it wasn’t nearly enough.

It’s not just the end result. Frankly, the process has gotten worse this season. And those 2023-24 numbers include the strong second half play.

This is a reduction in quantity and quality.

After years of power play meltdowns in the postseason (not to mention second-half collapses), I thought the Leafs should start the year with two star-balanced units; Auston Matthews And William Nylander and the other in the center Mitch Marner And John Tavares.

I think this is something they need to rethink. Not only would it freshen things up for a top-flight group that has already become stale, it could also increase competition between the two groups.

Maybe something like this:

PPA: Matthews, Nylander, Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi, Matthew Knies

PPB: Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann

It’s still early, but St. After a 5-1 loss to St. Louis, the pressure is on for first-year assistant Marc Savard to figure it out.

2. The most surprising thing about the rushing chances and defensive lapses the Leafs have given up over the past few games is who it’s mostly involved: the first line, led by Matthews.

This group of Marner and Knies lost by three goals in Columbus and lost to St. Louis, including the failed transfer between Matthews and Knies. They surrendered two more goals against St. Louis. Jake McCabe What Craig Berube later called “lazy hockey.”

The numbers for the series in the last two games are a bit shocking:

• Goals: 0-5
• Shots: 7-13
• Expected goals: 28 percent

It’s not just the Matthews group, either, and it’s made the Leafs coach quite uncomfortable, too. “Some of them are mental mistakes and some of them we have to be tougher, play more physical killer plays,” Berube said after his first match against his former team.

I wonder if the stars are goalkeepers? Anthony Stolarz He was covering some warts before the two-game slide.

3. Outside of Matthews, the situation at center is very unstable and there is no clear way to improve things.

Domi looks increasingly stretched as a 2C (which is no surprise) and the recent deployment of Tavares and his teammates have felt underwhelming. Berube replaced two in the third period on Thursday.

It appears the Leafs are in a tough spot regarding Tavares; There are two fundamental questions and no clear answer:

1. How best to use it?
2. Who can you play him best with?

Tavares had a faceoff percentage below 50 percent in the offensive zone for the first time in his career. He was used mostly as a check-line type center, lining up for more defensive zone faceoffs at five-on-five (23) than offensive zone draws (19).

This doesn’t seem like the optimal way to deploy Tavares. Not only because of his skills and teammates, but also because he is 34 years old and in his 16th year. NHL season.

And St. The situation against Louis began to change; While Tavares drew more attention on offense, he regained his position as the second-row center in the third period. In fact, the Leafs scored their only goal against the Blues following an offensive zone draw led by Tavares.

The Leafs have outscored teams 5-1 at 5-on-5 with Tavares on the ice, but the process hasn’t been pretty. Last season, the Leafs allowed 3.1 expected goals per 60 with their then-captain on the ice. This season? That number sits at an anemic 1.6.

There are distribution and desk mates.

Tavares lost Nylander as a reliever after the second game of the season. Until Thursday’s midgame switch, Robertson’s teammates were a mix. Pontus Holmberg, Max Pacioretty And Steven Lorentz. Robertson and Pacioretty, like Tavares, are first-time shooters; Holmberg and Lorentz are limited offensively.

Who will give Tavares the puck?

But it’s not yet clear what exactly Berube and company should do about it.

Reconnecting Tavares and Nylander (or Tavares and Marner) leaves questions elsewhere, such as what to do about Domi and the third-line center point.

Like, put Domi down and who is he playing with? So what is the function of this line?

This was part of why it made so much sense to experiment with Nylander at the center, and why giving up so quickly didn’t work.

4. I wonder if the Leafs should consider splitting Matthews and Marner in hopes of creating (or trying to create) three balanced lines with a decent chance of scoring and driving the game.

I’m not sure if the puzzle pieces are there to be useful. There is a lack of legitimate top nine forwards in this group right now, especially Calle Järnkrok walked out and Pacioretty (already a question mark for this kind of role at this stage of his career) suffered.

It’s at least worth noting that Matthews has scored just two goals at five-on-five in the first eight games.

Related: He’s shooting 7.7 percent, which would be by far the lowest mark of his career.

Matthews’ individual shot and try rates also increased; The quantity and quality of opportunities the Leafs create while on the ice have also increased.

Still, the Leafs need that line for production. This team has scored one goal or less in the three matches it has played so far.

5. David Kampf It was kind of rendered pointless because of the way it was deployed.

He fell down the depth chart at the penalty kill and suddenly this season is no longer lining up on faceoffs in the defensive zone. Kämpf has strangely made the fewest defensive faceoffs among the Leaf regulars this season (12).

Usage there has dropped halfway through from last season.

This raises the question of how exactly Kämpf, who makes $2.4 million under the cap, should help the Leafs.

—Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference

(Top photo of Mitch Marner: Chris Tanouye / Getty Images)