Will California Republicans certify the presidential election?

In January 2021, Seven of 11 California Republicans in Congress He refused to certify the 2020 presidential election results, strengthening his baseless claim that former President Donald Trump lost in a fraudulent vote.

Now, as Trump attempts to return to the White House, only a third of Republican U.S. representatives in California have pledged to certify the results this November.

Only four of the 12 GOP incumbents, all of whom want a new term, have promised to certify the election results. Two of three candidates challenging the GOP in California’s most competitive districts — Scott Baugh in Orange County and Kevin Lincoln of Central Valley — made the same promise in response to the CalMatters investigation. In the U.S. Senate race in California, GOP candidate Steve Garvey made the following pledge: February.

The refusal of most GOP congressional candidates to commit comes as Trump and his allies have begun to cast doubt on the outcome of the November election and sow fear among election officials. disruptions and violence. Trump peddled false claims of prevalence non-citizen votingargued that Vice President Kamala Harris will only wins if Democrats cheat and questioned the constitutionality of Democrats replacing President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

Congress’s vote to count all the electoral votes certified by each state is the final step in electing a president. It was usually a formality, but it was after Trump lost the 2020 election to Biden.

On January 6, 2021, a mob of Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol. Early the next morning, 147 Republican members of Congress Voted to object to the counting of Electoral College votes Arizona or Pennsylvania or both.

At the time, all 44 California Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate voted to certify the election.

Eight of California’s current Republican members of Congress were incumbents, but only Rep. Young Kim – Flips northern Orange County seat in 2020 – Voted to certify the election results without raising doubts about them. “The Constitution does not give Congress the power to overturn elections. “Taking such action weakens the authority of states,” he said. a statement In 2021.

He told CalMatters he plans to preserve the results of this election as well.

Rep. Tom McClintock was the only other California Republican to vote to certify the election. However he said This was because he believed Congress lacked the constitutional authority to reject electoral votes — not because he didn’t have concerns about how elections were run.

But in December 2020, McClintock was one of four California Republicans in Congress to file an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court. Objection to election results in PennsylvaniaArguing that there is mail-in voting. It “invites fraud and fuels suspicion of fraud” and claims that “ballot harvesters” collected ballots “without chain of custody.” Multiple accuracy checks to create no evidence He said there was widespread voter harvesting, or voter fraud, during the 2020 election and that courts have rejected more than 50 lawsuits filed by Trump and his allies to challenge the election results.

McClintock told CalMatters he will vote to support the electoral vote in the upcoming election. “Congress’s only role in this matter is to witness the counting of votes. “Period,” he said.

Congress in 2022, Electoral Count Reform ActThis made it harder for Congress to challenge the election results and clarified the vote counting process. Every Republican incumbent in California who was in office at the time voted against it.

But political experts say that despite this new scare, efforts to overturn the election should now be expected. That’s a sharp departure from a decade ago, said Kim Nalder, a political science professor at California State University, Sacramento.

“It is truly appalling that we have normalized this abnormal situation,” he said. “We cannot survive with this level of distrust in our core institutions, and I don’t know what will change that, but something has to change.”

Veteran lobbyist Chris Micheli said the presidential election results could be challenged again, in part because of the close proximity. Polls say the race is down to seven battleground states. Both Harris and Trump are preparing legal teams in case of a challenge.

“This is an absolutely dark period in American history, unfolding both on January 6 and before December, when members of Congress voted against electing the clear winner in the presidential election,” Micheli said. “These votes fueled the anger of many voters, especially in California.”

The California Republican Party is confident the election results will be certified, spokeswoman Ellie Hockenbury told CalMatters. The party is still preparing for any problems that may arise.

“To make sure we don’t leave anything to chance,” he said, the national and state GOP “made a huge investment.” Election Integrity operation to ensure that all concerns are addressed in real time and that Californians can vote with confidence that their ballot will be received and counted.”

Republican Party in the state Firmly behind TrumpDespite losing to Biden 63% to 34% in 2020, he still won California has more votes than any other state. One New survey from the Public Policy Institute of California Released Wednesday night, Harris leads Trump 59 percent to 33 percent among likely voters. But in swing congressional districts, voters are generally evenly divided.

Representative Ken Calvert District 41 in Riverside CountyHe became the only California Republican member of Congress to commit to certifying the presidential election results this time after objecting four years ago. He also joined court summary He challenged Pennsylvania’s 2020 results and advocated for a “thorough investigation.” voter fraud allegations In 2021.

Calvert’s campaign did not say why his stance had changed from four years ago.

Rep. Jay Obernolte, who voted to object to the count. He told the Southern California News Group He said he still has “serious constitutional reservations about what’s going on in these two states (Arizona and Pennsylvania)” in 2022.

Reps. David Valadao and Michelle Steel missed the 2021 ballot. Steel, his He tested positive for COVID-19Valadao is not yet sworn because his test was positive too. However, Valadao said: on social media would vote to certify the election.

Three incumbents who take office in 2023 will face this decision for the first time if they are re-elected. But not everyone answers the question: Rep. John Duarte – a farmer from Modesto facing a fierce challenge Democrat Adam Gray — the only one to publicly state his position and tell the Sacramento Bee he would vote to certify the presidential election. (Duarte did not respond to CalMatters’ inquiry.)

Reps. Kevin Kiley, Vince Fong, Doug LaMalfa, Darrell Issa and Mike Garcia, as well as Obernolte and Valadao, did not respond to questions from CalMatters. Matt Gunderson, candidate for the 49th District in San Diego County, did not respond to CalMatters.

Strategists say Republicans are reluctant to speak publicly about the issue out of concern about losing votes from Trump supporters.

“This puts Republicans in competitive districts in a difficult position,” said Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the California Republican Party.

“Of course they will vote to certify the election results, but they also don’t want to anger the conservative base because they need them to Get Out the Vote. “So this is a divisive issue for Republicans, and so I don’t think they want to talk about it much.”

For Republicans running in swing districts, the answer to whether they will support the election outcome depends on which voters they want to influence, Nalder said.

“If the goal is to recruit some moderate voters or some voters from the opposing party in these close races, it would make sense to have strong support for certification,” he said. “But if the strategy is more about engagement among their base… it probably makes sense to evade.”

But for GOP members of Congress in safe Republican districts, the calculus is more about their “future in the party,” Nalder said.

“Assuming Trump wins, they will need to show loyalty within the party, and so it would not be beneficial for their political careers to pre-commit to something that the party might later oppose,” he said.