Latest Middle East News: Two Iranian Soldiers ‘Killed in Israeli Attack’; Starmer warns Tehran not to react

TO Dominic Waghorneditor of international relations

An unprecedented night of Israeli airstrikes on Iran may have been just what was needed to steer the Middle East away from all-out war.

This may seem strange, since for several hours Israeli planes flew freely through Iranian airspace, apparently attacking air defense targets and assets at will.

You might think that this was some sort of escalation that led to Iran upping the ante and launching thousands of ballistic missiles to rain down on Israeli cities and towns.

But this is unlikely to happen.

Why? Because neither side wants total war. For months now, Israel and Iran have been trying to get tough, desperate to avoid this. Last night’s surgery was no different.

The reasons are clear. Iran cannot afford to enter into a fight with Israel and perhaps America that it will never be able to win. Its economy is destroyed, its proxies and allies are defeated, and its legitimacy is completely undermined after the brutal suppression of internal unrest.

Israel might be tempted to engage in a more serious fight with the ayatollahs to destroy their nuclear weapons program. This would not have been possible without American military support, and President Biden initially ruled it out.

But the risk of a much larger Iran-Israeli war is very real and very dangerous.

That’s because the rules of the Middle Eastern jungle still apply: if you get hit, hit back harder. Failure to do so appears weak and dangerous.

So when Israel killed Iran’s most important allies, one of them in their own capital, the Iranians looked weak and were forced to respond. In retaliation for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, they launched a couple hundred ballistic missiles at Israel.

It is Israel’s turn to look weak. He also had to strike back.

But as she considered her options, she had to go with the Goldilocks option. Hot enough to teach the Iranians a lesson, but not so hot that they look even weaker and have to do it all again.

Ahead of last night’s attacks, the Iranians expressed their preference. Through outlets such as the New York Times, a number of Iranian officials have signaled that an Israeli attack on oil or nuclear facilities would likely trigger another ballistic missile attack large enough to make the first attack look like a game of darts.

But if our military bases, weapons depots, etc. are attacked, we may simply not do anything in response, officials have reportedly said.

Music to the ears of Israel’s American allies, who are pressuring Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu not to listen to hawks in his government who favor the nuclear option.

Israel appears to have listened, and so far Iran’s signals have also been encouraging.

The prospect of a regional war drawing in outside forces and engulfing the Middle East appears more distant this morning, despite the fireworks over Tehran.