WTC final scenarios: India need four wins from six remaining Tests to secure place

There are only 20 tests left in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle and five teams have a chance to make it to the finals. Here’s a look at each team’s qualifying prospects.

India
Percentage: 62.82, remaining matches: New Zealand (one at home) and Australia (five away).

Two shock defeats to New Zealand mean India have a lot left to do to reach their third WTC final in a row, although they currently still hold the top spot with a slight lead over Australia. To be sure of a top-two place this cycle, India need to win the final Test of the ongoing series against New Zealand – in Mumbai – and then beat Australia 3-2. This will increase their rating to 64.04% (assuming they don’t lose any points due to slow overbidding).

Even if Australia win 2-0 in Sri Lanka, they will still only be able to reach 60.53% with two wins over India, while New Zealand will end up reaching 57.14% if they lose in Mumbai , and then beat England 3-0 at home. In this case, South Africa will be the only team that can beat India. A 2-2 series result in Australia would leave India at 60.53% compared to Australia’s 62.28% (assuming India win in Mumbai and Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0).

If India loses in Mumbai, New Zealand can finish with 64.29%, but only with a 3-0 record against England. India will then need four wins and a draw in Australia to secure a place in the final, regardless of other results.

However, India could still finish in the top two with fewer wins if the other teams in the rivalry do not maximize their points. For example, if New Zealand lose in Mumbai and beat England 2-0, they will only get to 52.38%; if South Africa lose one of their five remaining Tests, they will finish with a score of 61.11%; and if Australia beat India 3-2 but draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will finish with a percentage of 60.53%.

New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, remaining matches: India (one away) and England (three at home).

At the start of the series in India, it seemed unlikely that New Zealand would still be in contention for a place in the final. But their stunning wins after two Tests out of three gave them a chance to dream. If they win each of the four remaining tests, they will finish with a score of 64.29%. This doesn’t guarantee qualification, but it will certainly keep them in the lineup. However, if they fail one of these tests, their percentage will drop to 57.14%.

South Africa
Percentage: 47.62, remaining matches: Bangladesh (one away), Sri Lanka (two at home) and Pakistan (two at home).

If South Africa win each of the five remaining Tests, they will finish with a score of 69.44%, which will surely be enough to qualify as only one from India or Australia will be able to top that number. Four wins and a draw would leave South Africa on 63.89%, while five wins and a loss would drop that percentage marginally to 61.11%, which could still give them a chance if other results go their way. However, they have a favorable schedule with home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan after the second Test of their ongoing series against Bangladesh.

Australia
Percentage: 62.50, remaining matches: India (five at home) and Sri Lanka (two away).

India’s defeats against New Zealand boosted Australia’s chances of reaching the final. A 3-2 series win over India and a 1-0 win in Sri Lanka will take their percentage to 62.28%, ensuring they move ahead of India. New Zealand can still surpass this figure, but only if they win all their remaining games. If New Zealand gets it wrong, South Africa will be the only team to beat Australia. To secure qualification regardless of other results, Australia need five wins from their seven remaining matches.

Sri Lanka
Percentage: 55.56, remaining matches: SA (two away) and Australia (two home).

Having collected a full 24 points in the last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their four remaining Tests are against two opponents who are also in contention for the final. If they win each of these matches and take home a further 48 points, they will finish with a score of 69.23% and secure a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lose one and win three, their rate would be 61.54%, which would still leave them with a chance to qualify, depending on their other results.

England
Percentage: 40.79, remaining matches: New Zealand (three away)

Two defeats in Pakistan mean England could finish with a maximum score of 48.86% even if they beat New Zealand 3-0 in their final series of the current cycle. This will not be enough to reach the finals.

Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, remaining matches: South Africa (two away) and West Indies (two at home).

Pakistan’s home form has shown some revival but it is too late to make a difference in this cycle. Even if they win each of the last four Tests, they can only finish with a score of 52.38%, with no chance of qualifying for the final.

Bangladesh
Percentage: 30.56, remaining matches: South Africa (one at home) and West Indies (two away).

Three defeats in the last three Tests against India and South Africa have hurt Bangladesh badly, with their scoring rate of 45.83% at one stage falling to 30.56% now. Even if they win each of the three remaining Tests, their percentage will only improve to 47.92%, which will not be enough for a place in the top two.

West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, remaining series: Bangladesh (two at home) and Pakistan (two away).

West Indies have already played four series and have scored only 20 points out of a possible 108. Even if they win the last four Tests, they can only finish with a score of 43.59% and are therefore out of the race for a place in the WTC finals. .