How could Trump be elected again?

We know nothing about Donald Trump other than how and why he might be elected president again.

Of course, there are theories. There are many theories. I’ve tried about a million of them myself.

But none of the explanations, even from the most astute political analysts, are good enough, because, well, how can they be? What I do know is that historians will be scratching their heads over Trump’s impact on America for the next hundred years—that is, if historians are still allowed to wonder.

And yet.

On Friday morning, in its latest report on the campaign, the New York Times/Siena College Poll – Possibly most respected national poll works – there are elections connected.

A poll of voters in the seven swing states that will likely determine who wins the Electoral College says the Wall Street Journal has Trump leading with Kamala Harris. One point at a time.

So the election appears to be a close one, despite a number of recent revelations about Trump and his fascination with Hitlerdespite Trump’s increasingly active position stupid rhetoric despite the use F-word — yes, fascist — from former Trump officials and even Harris herself to describe Trump. No matter what.

By everything, I mean the main points of Trump’s final campaign promise to the American people:

He will deport millions of illegal migrants, including some who have lived here for decades and even some who may have never eaten anyone’s pets.

He will impose tariffs well, on everything, despite the confidence of economists of all stripes that such tariffs will destroy the economy.

He will demand retribution about his political enemies, from politicians to reporters, prosecutors and, I guess, pop singers, as well as anyone he considers an “enemy within.”

Oh, and he won’t allow it trans kids get involved in women’s sports because this is an issue plaguing the nation.

By everything I mean the fact that he is a convicted rapist, that he is a convicted felon, that he is a promoter of the Big Lie and a thousand other smaller lies, that he tried to overturn the 2020 election, that he unleashed a violent mob on it. The US Capitol that he promises to pardon the January 6th rioters is, well, I could go on, but what’s the point?

We all know this. Trump has made no secret of what he plans to do if elected. He, well, brags about it. Of course he brags about it.

David Frum, one of the first Never-Trump supporters tweeted the other day: “Do you think anyone has a video of Trump mocking the disabled, humiliating American prisoners of war, bragging about sexually assaulting women, praising Vladimir Putin, or calling for a violent attack on the Capitol? It would be huge.”

As CNN commentator Van Jones said, pointing to double standard The media and others appear to be judging Trump vs. Harris: “They’re taking different tests. He will become a lawless man. It must be flawless.”

And yet.

One group that seems to understand the stakes is women, who, based on years of experience, know a dangerous man when they see one. You’ve seen the gender gap numbers in surveys. In Friday’s Times poll, women preferred Harris by a 54-41 margin. Men preferred Trump by a 55-42 margin. Recent USA Today poll had a gap of 17 percentage points.

Yes, this gender gap has existed since at least the 1980s. But this year?

Some are calling 2024 an election for boys versus girls. But that’s not all. Like Washington Post columnist Monica Hesse markedit doesn’t mean that “girls want to choose a Barbie doll and boys want to choose a monster truck.” It’s more like most men are apparently happy to choose a sexual predator.

Trump has clearly earned the distrust/disgust of women. It’s not just the insults—racist, sexist and otherwise—he’s dumping Harris. Trump and Mitch McConnell created more than just the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. It’s not just that Trump was convicted in court as a rapist. This is not just his creepy speech to women: “I am your protector.” It’s not just his penchant for violence. And it’s not just that he chose a candidate who scolds “childless cat ladies.” It’s not just his bizarre rant about how the late golfer Arnold Palmer was a real man because of the apparent size of his penis.

Let’s go to the recent Trump rally in Georgia, where insufferable Trump supporter Tucker Carlson, uh, explained in his warm-up that Trump was “Dad” of America and that the Democrats were essentially like a “hormone-addled 15-year-old daughter” snapping her parents’ fingers about to slam her bedroom door.

“When dad comes home,” Carlson told the crowd, “you know what he says? “You’ve been a bad girl, you’ve been a bad girl, and now you’re being spanked vigorously.”

He continued, “And no, it won’t hurt me any more than it hurts you. No, that’s not true. I’m not going to lie. This will hurt you a lot more than it will hurt me. And you deserve it. You will be spanked hard because you have been a bad girl.”

Let’s put aside the question of whether anyone has ever used the word “vigorous” when it comes to spanking their child and just focus on the sheer insanity of the metaphor itself. And the further madness of the wildly cheering crowd.

Back on planet Earth, Tom Nichols wrote recent article in The Atlantic attempts to explain the appeal of Trump’s outrageous behavior and the behavior he engenders among his most ardent supporters. He says many Trump supporters know exactly who Trump is and they like it that way.

And that Trump’s recent warnings about fascism won’t change any of that. For now, nothing Trump has done seems to have changed anything.

“For millions of GOP supporters, however, Trump’s sad attempts to break new boundaries of ugliness are not offensive, but encouraging,” Nichols writes. “They want Trump is terrible precisely because the people they consider their political enemies will be shocked if he wins.”

This is a provocative article, but of course there is a lot that the idea of ​​“owning libraries” does not explain. Yes, there are Trump cultists who definitely fall into Nichols’ category. But they are not enough (at least, let’s hope) to win the election. It doesn’t explain the normal people—the normal Republicans you and I know—who will vote for Trump because he’s on their team, and who will somehow willfully ignore everyone else.

Does anyone know how to contact these people? Do you think if people like George W. Bush or Mitt Romney had endorsed Harris it would have helped? Perhaps on the outskirts. Maybe not.

The best I can do is give a warning. People are afraid of what Trump might do. Do you want to know how afraid you are?

A week after the billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Times, where I once worked, killed a pro-Kamala Harris editorial and refused to endorse her in the election, Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos, one of the world’s richest and most powerful people, in the world, did the same.

The Post, Woodward and Bernstein’s newspaper, the paper that adopted the slogan “Democracy Dies in Darkness” after Trump became president in 2017, took a knee.

I assure you, it is no coincidence that Trump continues threaten “Fake news” media at the corporate level where real power exists. And where does the real money flow?

Former Post editor Marty Baron called Bezos’ decision “cowardice.” At least one notable post reviewer and the editor resigned. At least three members of the LA Times editorial board have resigned.

Yes, it is difficult—perhaps even futile—trying to explain how and why we, the American people, might elect Trump again.

But it’s easy—very easy—to guess what might happen if we repeat this mistake. We’ve already seen this happen once. This time, with fewer obstacles for Trump, it will almost certainly be worse.

And yet.

And yet.

Election Day is almost here and somehow we are faced with such a world.

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Story type: Opinion

Communicates ideas and draws conclusions based on the author/producer’s interpretation of facts and data.