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Predictions, picks and best bets on Cowboys vs. 49ers for SNF: Is it now or never for Dallas?

Posted on by Bobb
Predictions, picks and best bets on Cowboys vs. 49ers for SNF: Is it now or never for Dallas?

God, how the mighty of this world have fallen. Cowboys vs. 49ers primetime is still must-watch for NFL fans, but the game feels much different than previous matchups.

The Cowboys are a fresher and (slightly) healthier team heading into this Sunday’s football showdown. They are also likely extremely motivated by what happened leading up to their bye week and what happened the last time they visited Levi’s Stadium.

Dallas beat Detroit 47-9 at home on Jerry Jones’ 82nd birthday before the weekend. It’s been a circus in the Fort Worth metro area ever since. Jerry Jones demonstrated a penchant for radio censorship and called out his head coach. Troy Aikman criticized CeeDee Lamb for sloppy route running.

The Cowboys seem to be in a world of chaos, but the 49ers are living in a world of pain. Christian McCaffrey is still out with an Achilles injury, Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL and Deebo Samuel was recently hospitalized with pneumonia.

Adding to the intrigue, the Cowboys enter this Week 8 matchup with not only that Detroit rout fresh in their minds, but also last year’s 42-10 road loss to the 49ers in Week 5 (their worst loss of the season). the whole story from San Francisco). ).

This makes for a stunning Week 8 NFL handicap. Let’s get to my predictions and best bets for Cowboys vs. 49ers for Week 8 of the NFL.

Cowboys vs. 49ers Week 8 NFL Predictions and Best Bets

Full disclosure: I’m a Cowboys fan, but I usually never bet on them unless they score points.

I haven’t trusted the Cowboys since the preseason, but I think this is a pretty bad spot for San Francisco. The 49ers suffered from a terrible Super Bowl hangover from the start.

I support the Cowboys for several reasons. One reason is that this betting line crosses the key NFL 3 betting number, which is most common margin of victory. Place your bet before it reaches 3.5 or even 3.

The Cowboys have a better defense, are a more rested and healthier team, and their defense just gave up 47 points. Their pride is hurt.

Special teams can also play a big role in this type of game. The Cowboys have the advantage here. Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in the game, and the 49ers will no longer have Jake Moody (ankle).

As the Associated Press notes, the Cowboys also have a significant advantage when it comes to field position. The Cowboys are at the top of the league in field position after kickoffs, while the 49ers are at the bottom.

I also think it’s the perfect place to cheer on a rested Cowboys teamespecially considering Mike McCarthy’s track record in such situations (12-5 after a week off and 3-1 after the bye to Dallas).

Dallas is 5-0 after a loss since 2022, posting the NFL’s best scoring average of 14.5 points during that span (per Teamrankings.com). I’ll add a little Cowboys Money Line Also.

San Francisco really misses Christian McCaffrey, who is still weeks away from returning. Nowhere is McCaffrey’s absence felt more than in the red zone (he threw 21 touchdowns last year).

Without McCaffrey, the 49ers went from leading the league in red zone efficiency (TD on 68% of red zone trips in 2023, per Teamrankings.com) to 27th this season (45.2%).

That’s why I like it 49ers under 24.5 points. San Francisco will keep the ball on the ground, limiting possessions in the game. The bottom line is that I don’t see their red zone wrestling improving with all their injuries.

Along with Aiyuk, Yauan Jennings will be missing, and Deebo Samuel likely won’t be 100%. Brock Purdy (17 of 31, 212 yards, 3 INT) looked very uninspired without most of his weapons against the Chiefs. Purdy hasn’t been very good overall this season (9 TDs, 7 INTs, 59.8 QBR).

The 49ers want to run the ball, and the Cowboys have the fifth-best defense in the league (143.2 points per game). However, the return of Eric Kendricks and a week of adjustments and no concerns about the passing game could even the score this week.

Cowboys vs. 49ers Moneyline Odds Analysis

Why the 49ers can win as favorites

Best odds: -198 at DraftKings

The 49ers can win this game because their defense is still very good (the healthiest part of their team) and Dallas’ defense is very bad (28.0 ppg – 31st).

San Francisco ranks 12th in the league in rushing defense (112.9 ppg) and should have no problem stopping the Cowboys’ worst offense in the NFL (77.2 ppg).

Fred Warner is arguably the best linebacker in the league. He’ll do his best to limit both the Dallas running game and the Cowboys’ second-best receiving option, tight end Jake Ferguson.

Offensively, Jordan Mason was a more than adequate replacement for McCaffrey. The 49ers will win this game if they can dictate the tempo by starting the run early. They can’t get behind and force Purdy to try and make a play on the skeleton body receiver.

The Cowboys are again missing All-Pro DE Micah Parsons (ankle), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and CB Daron Bland (foot).

The 49ers have struggled in the red zone, but facing the Cowboys without key defenders could be the perfect elixir. Dallas ranks second to last in red zone defense. Dallas gives up a touchdown on trips into the red zone 74% of the time.

Why the Cowboys can win as underdogs

Best odds: +178 to Caesar

The Cowboys can win this game because it is on the road. Wait, what? Yes, the Cowboys are probably happy to be out of Fort Worth given all the drama that has occurred over the last two weeks following their blowout loss to Detroit.

The loss dropped the Cowboys to 0–3 at home. In these home losses, Dallas trails by 66 points. The teams gained strength the first falls with astonishing speed in Jerry’s world.

Of course, this is an overly simplistic view of things. The teams the Cowboys faced at home (Saints, Ravens, Lions) were better than their opponents on the road (Browns, Giants, Steelers).

What category does this 49ers team fall into? That’s a question that will be answered Sunday night. At this point, San Francisco is probably closer to the level of the Cowboys’ road opponents than, say, the Ravens or Lions.

The Cowboys can win this game if they become more balanced on offense (34% of plays – 31st) and get ahead early. Dalvin Cook was signed off the practice squad for the first time this season in a move designed to encourage the running game.

Many of Dallas’ offensive problems stem from Dak Prescott making poor decisions in the red zone. Dallas is -6 in profitability. Prescott has nearly as many interceptions (6) as he did all of last year (9).

The flows in this zone are one of the reasons the Cowboys have the second-worst red zone offense in the league (TD on 37.5% of their drives).

The Cowboys can win if Prescott plays well and helps solve Dallas’ red zone woes. San Francisco’s defense in this area was a little more generous than last year. The 49ers give up TDs on 61% of their trips into the red zone (22nd) vs. 52% in 2023 (11th).

The 49ers are looking to make it four straight wins over Dallas for the first time since their six-game winning streak from 1981-90. For Dallas, it’s now or never. If the Cowboys can’t beat this version of the 49ers, it’s hard to expect them to do so anytime soon.