Japan’s ruling coalition no longer rules

Japanese voters handed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition and its junior partner Komeito a landslide defeat on Sunday. Not only is the LDP no longer a majority force, but the coalition no longer rules. Now you need to answer two questions. First, will the LDP now be able to create a new coalition government, and if so, what will it look like? Secondly, what are the consequences for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru?

Numbers tell the story best. The LDP now has 191 places in the lower house compared to 247. Komeito now has twenty fourcompared to thirty-two candidates for election. (In a shocking development for Komeito, its newly elected leader Keiichi Ishii lost his seat). The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), now has 148 seats. fifty more than before the elections. Not all of the LDP’s lost seats went to the CDP, but it is clear that the majority of Japanese voters decided to shift their support from Japan’s conservative party to its liberal alternative, led by former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko.

Public discontent with the LDP has been evident for some time. Two scandals have tarnished the LDP since the last elections in 2021. murder former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. Abe’s killer admitted that he did it because his family was being hunted by the Unification Church, a Korean religious movement originally led by the Rev. Sun Myung Moon and invited to Japan by Abe’s grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, and continued to have relationships with Abe and other LDP members generations later. . LDP poll disclosed significant connections between some members of parliament, including support for the election campaign.

Adding fuel to public mistrust was the revelation that the Abe faction had amassed a “slush fund” used to support the elections of its members. This prompted Kisid’s cabinet to make a proposal, and the Sejm to accept legislationwhich will provide additional transparency into campaign fundraising. However, once again the long-standing ruling party was seen to be hiding its election funding. The “money and politics” (seiji to kane) scandal is of course nothing new in Japanese politics, but the LDP has incurred the wrath of voters for its careless management of its finances. The slush fund scandal implicated 46 LDP members. twenty eight eventually lost their places.

The LDP will now have to turn to other parties to create a new coalition to govern Japan. The LDP and Komeito coalition now have only 215 seats, short of a simple majority of 233 of the 465 seats in the lower house. Another important goal for the future is the stable majority of 261 seats needed to control the legislative agenda in the lower house. This larger number would allow for control over committee chairmanships as well as agenda setting for future legislation.

Thus, the LDP will need a new coalition if it wants to form a government. The two sides can offer better options. The first is the Ishin no Kai (or Japanese Innovation Party), a party whose support is concentrated in the Kansai region of Japan. Ishin is considered a reformist in orientation, hoping for greater regional autonomy in a country largely ruled from Tokyo, but he also takes a hawkish stance on defense and foreign policy. Thus, perhaps it will become a desirable political partner for the LDP in national strategy. However, this would be at odds with Komeito’s defensive views, which have long been seen as a disincentive (hadome) for the more militant members of the LDP. In yesterday’s elections, the Ishin party won thirty-eight seats. If added to the LDP-Komeito coalition, it would give a simple majority of a total of 252 seats, but it lacks a stable majority that would help create the legislative framework for a new coalition government.

Another party that has been in the media spotlight as a possible coalition partner is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The DPP has very similar inclinations when it comes to managing the national economy. With twenty-eight seats won yesterday, this would increase the LDP-Komeito coalition to 242, again a simple majority, but not enough to be stable. If the LDP can find a way to include Komeito, Ishin no Kai and the DPP in the ruling coalition, that would total 280 seats—a stable majority and sixty percent of the total seats in the lower house. There are also twelve independent members of parliament who could potentially be elected now if the LDP can bring them into the coalition.

But what is the cost of forming this type of coalition? It’s too early to say what negotiations might look like, but Sankei Shimbun reports that negotiations have begun between the LDP and Ishin and the DPP. Of course, it is also possible that the CDPJ has its own coalition plans. With 148 seats, it is in a strong position to organize an opposition LDP coalition and any coalition it creates to govern Japan. At the very least, we should expect that CDPJ President Noda will try to convince the DPP to stay on its side of the political fence rather than cooperate with the LDP. Ishin will have less in common with the more liberal CDPJ, but if Noda can be brought on board if he caters to Ishin’s regional interests. Preventing other parties from collaborating with the LDP may be the CDPJ’s best strategy. Finally, there is a possibility that the LDP and the CDPJ will find a common language. This would be a much less attractive option for Ishiba’s party, but under Noda’s leadership it could become a stable ruling coalition for Japan.

The more pressing question in the days ahead is the second question: can Ishiba Shigeru hold on to his long-awaited opportunity to lead his party and Japan? Withdrawal from controversial LDP presidential election last monthEven before the elections, Ishiba faced serious problems. Intra-party voting was tense: Ishiba victory his LDP counterpart received support by only twenty-one votes. The narrow victory led to his rival Takaichi Sanae withdrawing his leadership support. Will she and her supporters, including rising leadership contender Kobayashi Takayuki, now attribute the LDP’s significant loss to Ishiba’s fault? Will she and others call for him to resign to take responsibility for the LDP’s biggest electoral defeat since the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ousted it from office in 2009?

It will take more time before we know the answers to any question. The LDP will meet tomorrow to determine next steps. And in the coming days, more information will undoubtedly come to the fore about what other parties might want in exchange for participating in the LDP-led coalition government. Expect tough negotiations both within and between the LDP and between smaller parties that would like to have more influence over Japan’s future.

What happens next depends on the Conservative Party’s ability to reframe its goals. Whether this is possible depends on the ability of Japanese conservatives to come to an agreement with each other.