“My gut feeling is that after decades of advocating for Canadian governments to address Indian concerns about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada, they feel like they are back to square one – except that this time you have a much more different government in Delhi that is prepared to act forcefully, good or bad, to contain perceived domestic threats,” says Mr. Touhey.

Mr. Kugelman echoes a similar sentiment.

“Much is at stake that explains the rapid deterioration of bilateral relations. This includes a fundamental disconnect: what India views, or projects, as a dangerous threat is seen by Canada as mere activism and dissent protected by freedom of expression. And neither wants to make concessions,” he says.

All may not be lost. The two countries have a long-standing relationship. Canada is home to one of the largest communities of Indian origin, with 1.3 million people, or about 4% of its population. India is a priority market for Canada, ranking as the 10th largest trading partner in 2022. India has also been Canada’s top source of international students since 2018.

“On the one hand, the relationship is much broader than ever before thanks to the size of the diaspora, the diversity of that diaspora and the increase in bilateral trade and increased student exchanges – although the latter has become a problematic question for the Trudeau government too,” said Mr. Touhey.

“So I think these people-to-people ties will be acceptable. At a high bilateral level, I don’t think there’s much the current Canadian government can do as it enters its final year with elections being held. later in fall 2025.”

But for now, things look pretty bad, experts say.

“Delhi is now making the same allegations against Canada that it regularly makes against Pakistan. He accuses Ottawa of harboring and sponsoring anti-Indian terrorists. But in recent times, the language used to make these allegations against Canada has been stronger than against Pakistan. And that means something,” Mr. Kugelman says.

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