Barring drastic action, the Baltimore Orioles should expect to have to hand Corbin Burnes a blank check this offseason if they want to retain him.

The right-hander is the second most sought-after free agent on the market, and for good reason, as he has arguably been the best starter in Major League Baseball over the past five seasons.

While it remains unlikely he’ll have to take a one-year deal to prove it, crazier things have happened. As we saw with Blake Snell last offseason, guys sometimes have slower free agencies.

If that’s the case, the Orioles could extend Burnes a qualifying offer, which could make sense for several reasons. If they think they’re going to lose Burnes, they could trade one up to get a draft pick.

If he doesn’t take it, all Burnes would do is hit free agency, which is already the expected outcome.

Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com explained the benefits of Baltimore and other teams extending a qualifying offer to their eligible free agents.

“Teams may extend a qualifying offer to certain free agents each offseason. Players who accept sign a one-year contract for the following season at the stated value (set at $21.05 million for 2025). Those who do not accept remain free agents, and if a new team signs them, their old team receives draft pick compensation.

Burnes is one of the top candidates to receive a qualifying offer, but only because it would be smart from the Orioles’ perspective. Again, the chances of him signing one are very slim.

With the way he’s pitched for Baltimore, he deserves the type of money he’s hoping to get. If it weren’t for a few rough starts after the All-Star break, there’s a good chance he would win his second Cy Young Award.

“Burnes lived up to expectations after being traded from the Brewers to the Orioles in the offseason, earning his fourth straight All-Star selection and finishing with a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts in 194 1/3 innings. 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner has posted a 2.88 ERA over the past five seasons, ranking third in the Majors with 816 2/3 innings during that span.

For just $21.05 million, even if he signed a one-year deal, the chances of it being more expensive than the qualifying offer are high.

The Orioles would benefit greatly from his market not being as high as expected. However, if this is the case, the best idea would be to sign him to a long-term deal for a lower price than initially expected.

If for some reason he were to renege on a qualifying offer, it wouldn’t be the worst outcome.