The month-long absence of Cameroonian President Paul Biya is sparking intense speculation about his health and raising fears of a post-Biya power struggle between the central African country’s political factions.

Biya, who has long been the subject of health suspicion, often disappears for weeks, only to resurface. These long absences have a negative impact on the daily functioning of a country facing multiple challenges, including a secessionist war in the west and a militant conflict in the north, analysts say.

Here is what you need to know about Biya’s disappearances and why Cameroonians are worried about the post-Biya era:

Why is there speculation?

Biya has not appeared in public since September 8, after attending the China-Africa forum, alongside several leaders from the continent, in Beijing.

Official opening, this September 5, 2024, of the Forum on Sino-African Cooperation.
I followed with attention the ten-point program presented by HE Xi Jinping as part of the vision of a comprehensive strategic partnership with Africa.#PaulBiya#Cameroon#FOCAC2024 pic.twitter.com/Cq6OSp8Au9

– President Paul BIYA (@PR_Paul_BIYA) September 5, 2024

The president canceled his participation in several high-level engagements where he was expected. He did not attend the United Nations General Assembly in September. He also did not appear at the International Organization of La Francophonie, a summit of French-speaking countries, which was held on October 4 in Paris.

Civil society groups and opposition leaders in Cameroon have called for clarification on Biya’s fate. Christian Ntimbane, a lawyer and politician who intends to run in the upcoming 2025 presidential elections, wrote an open letter to officials saying: “If he is on vacation, say so. If he is sick, say that too.

Before his disappearance, Biya was scheduled to spend a diplomatic summer, starting with the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics in July. On August 15, he also attended a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings in Provence, southern France, during World War II.

Analysts say his absence is telling. Especially when the country finds itself at a crossroads: a secessionist war for an independent Ambazonia in the English-speaking west has raged since 2017, leading to the death of at least 6,000 people and the displacement of 700,000 others according to the International Crisis Group.

In the north, the armed group Boko Haram, initially based in neighboring Nigeria, has for years expanded its operations by launching large-scale incursions into Cameroon. Meanwhile, many people in the country are out of work as the country faces high food and energy prices due to its reliance on volatile oil revenues, according to the World Bank.

What did the government say?

Authorities initially tried to downplay Biya’s absence from public events, saying he was in good health in Switzerland – where he reportedly went after the Beijing forum.

Communications Minister René Sadi said in a statement in early October that speculation and rumors about the president’s state of health had “no connection with reality” and were “pure fantasy.” Sadi added: “The head of state is doing well and will return to Cameroon in the coming days.”

However, these assurances had little effect. On October 9, Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji banned Cameroonian media from “debating” and reporting on Biya’s health, saying it was a security issue and that it “disturbed tranquility” of Cameroonians.

In a letter to regional governors of the country’s 10 provinces, Nji said any further discussion about the president’s health would be punished, warning that anyone violating the order “will face the full force of the law.” Nji also ordered governors to set up “monitoring cells” to monitor online content.

Journalists and media outlets across the country and beyond have condemned the ban, calling it an attempt to silence the press. While it is not uncommon for journalists to be targeted or arrested in the country, a specific rule prohibiting discussion of Biya’s health is new territory, analysts say.

“Trying to hide behind national security on an issue this important and of national importance is outrageous,” said Angela Quintal, Africa program manager at the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a rights group. media, in a press release.

Is this common in Cameroon?

This is not the first time the president has been absent for weeks, nor is it new for Cameroonians to face uncertainty over his health.

At 91 years old, Biya is the second-longest-serving African leader. He came to power in 1982 and is only Cameroon’s second president since its independence from France in 1960. His 42-year reign is second only to 82-year-old Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who is in power in Equatorial Guinea for 45 years.

Biya’s long absences from the public eye and his palace in Yaoundé, the Cameroonian capital, earned him the nickname “itinerant president.” A five-star hotel in Geneva, Switzerland is known to be Biya’s favorite destination. It is assumed that he is undergoing medical treatment in the European country, but also goes shopping. His wife, Chantal Biya, is famous for her luxurious taste.

In 2018, Biya had, excluding official trips, spent the equivalent of four and a half years on “brief private visits” in Europe, according to an investigation carried out by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). In 2006 and 2009, the president spent up to a third of the year outside the country, according to investigators. OCCRP estimated that a day’s stay at his and his official entourage’s favorite hotel in Geneva costs around $40,000.

The prolonged absence “creates a governance vacuum, characterized by decision-making paralysis and increased bureaucratic inefficiency,” democracy activist Kathleen Ndongmo told Al Jazeera. “No one really knows who runs the country. This lack of clear leadership continually erodes public trust, fuels political instability and undermines accountability,” she added.

In 2016, when lawyers and teachers in the English-speaking western regions protested against allegations of discrimination by the majority French-speaking government, Biya was absent, even as security forces opened fire on demonstrators. The repression turned into war in 2017 between separatist groups and the Cameroonian government, which is still ongoing.

Biya’s absences have become even more pronounced, with most citizens having to rely on rare television addresses to see him.

A political battle in the making?

With the president’s growing absences, some in the country are concerned about possible conflict between factions of the country’s political elite seeking to govern in a post-Biya Cameroon.

Although Cameroon has a multi-party system and there are periodic general elections, Biya’s ruling Cameroonian People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) has consistently swept the polls and dominated the government.

But Biya is not known to have groomed anyone in particular as a possible successor. There is strong speculation that his son Franck Biya could be the favored candidate, but his son is known to keep a low profile, revealing little of his political ambitions. Last October, the 53-year-old visited the scene of a landslide that killed 30 people in Yaoundé – although he held no official position. He did not speak to the press during the visit, adding another layer of confusion.

Opposition parties have strongly spoken out against the continuation of the Biya dynasty. At the same time, local reports suggest that within the ruling RDPC party, leaders have neither supported nor spoken out against a possible junior Biya candidacy. Some officials of the party and its many small allied parties have “urged” Biya senior to seek a new mandate.

“Cameroon is an opaque cesspool in which even key players are unable to articulate the “global” maneuvers in which they are trapped,” said democracy activist Ndongmo, adding that there was already a “ civil war” within the succession regime.

“The intrigues are relentless, with sides changing day by day. The post-Biya era will not be beautiful if one faction does not end up being a clear winner by then,” she said.