Google has been at the center of the largest antitrust trial in decades, as the DOJ questions practices that have kept the search engine front and center on smartphones and web browsers. Until now, Google has paid billions to Apple and other companies each year to gain a major device position, but Jeffries analysts predicted Wednesday that the DOJ would ban such deals in the future in an effort to to break any research monopoly. Jeffries estimates the $25 billion deal represents 20% of Apple’s pre-tax profit, or about 6.3% of total revenue, representing an 8% to 11% impact on stock prices .

These deals have been happening since 2002, when Google first paid Apple a cut of its search advertising revenue to make Google the default search platform. According to The Financial Timeswhich gave Google access to Apple’s user base, with more than half of all search queries in the United States today coming through Apple devices.

During the trial, DOJ lawyers argued that Google’s practice of paying billions to consolidate its position on platforms like Apple was blocking competitors and preventing innovation. Google has repeatedly countered that its dominance comes from consumer preferences and that users can easily switch to other search engines if they want. However, DOJ prosecutors say the sheer scale of these payments reveals Google’s efforts to maintain its monopoly.

Even if the DOJ terminates these agreements, the effects could take time to materialize. Jefferies estimates it could take three to eight years to reach a final outcome in court, with the possibility of lengthy appeals. Jeffries also called his own estimates “pessimistic,” noting that they are part of a model in which there is no offset from Apple’s revenue. If the deal is indeed stuck for years, as Jeffries predicts, Apple has plenty of time to rectify the situation and make up for any potential revenue loss. Jeffries also added that the impact could be limited to the United States only, depending on Europe’s reaction to any DOJ decision.

Representatives for Jeffries, Apple and Google did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for feedback.

Meanwhile, Apple’s stock price has remained relatively resilient, supported by investor optimism about upcoming products like the iPhone 17 as well as new AI-based technologies.

Still, if the DOJ blocks the Google-Apple deal, it will mark a significant shift for both companies and could force Apple to explore its own search engine or deeper AI integrations — a path that carries its own risks . For Google, the stakes are just as high, if not higher. This case could fundamentally disrupt the company’s ability to use financial deals to dominate the search engine market.

The outcome of the case would also have ripple effects across the broader technology landscape, potentially opening the door to competitors such as Microsoft. As regulators around the world closely monitor this case, it’s clear that Google and Apple find themselves at the crossroads of a legal decision that could reshape their futures.