The Justice Department may block Google (GOOGL) from being the default search engine on Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone as part of its antitrust victory against the tech giant.

In August, a federal judge ruled that Google monopolized the online search engine market. Analysts at Jefferies (JEF) said a “very likely” outcome could be that the Justice Department chooses to ban Google from paying Apple to be the exclusive search engine for the popular smartphone.

This could be a major blow to Apple’s revenue. Analysts estimate revenue from the deal to be about $25 billion for the year, or about 6.3% of Apple’s revenue and 20% of its pretax profit.

This ban could last several years and would not prevent Google from entering into a revenue sharing agreement with Apple. Instead, it would prevent the two tech giants from entering into an exclusive deal that would exclude other search engines.

Apple stock was flat Thursday morning, trading at $231.96 per share. The tech giant has a market capitalization of $3.52 trillion, the largest in the world.

Federal Judge Amit Mehta said in his ruling that Google’s exclusive deals with companies like Apple allowed it to raise prices for advertisers without any backlash.

To address Google’s monopoly on the search engine market, the Justice Department said in a court filing earlier this month that it was seeking solutions that would prevent and restrict any present and future continuation of its dominance.

This would include “behavioral and structural solutions that would prevent Google from using products such as Chrome, Play and Android to take advantage of Google Search and Google Search-related products and features” – which could also mean the dissolution of the ‘business.

Although the decision and the DOJ’s subsequent proposals will impact the iPhone maker, Apple’s shares have been largely unaffected by the decision. Jefferies noted that the sales performance of the recently launched iPhone 16 and the rollout of its artificial intelligence features, Apple Intelligence, are more important near-term drivers.

Analysts said they are concerned that market expectations for next year’s iPhone 17 are too high and that AI hardware technology on smartphones will have to wait until the iPhone 18 in 2026 is fully developed.

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