Luis Arraez will make more money than Manny Machado in 2025.

That’s according to MLBTradeRumor.com’s arbitration projection model, originally released Oct. 1 as the Padres began their postseason run.

The three-time batting champion headlines eight arbitration-eligible Padres who must receive raises based on earning at least three years of service. Players who reach six years of service reach free agency, so Arraez ($14.6 million), Dylan Cease ($13.7 million), Michael King ($7.9 million) and Tyler Wade ($900,000) will begin their service years after having exceeded five years of service. in 2024.

Relievers Jason Adam ($5.3 million) and Adrián Morejón ($1.8 million) have exceeded four years of service and Luis Patiño ($800,000) is eligible for arbitration for the first time after reaching three years while he was on the 60-day injured list after Tommy John. surgery.

MLBTradeRumors.com also projects Luis Campusano to surpass the Super Two cut line and earn $1.7 million in 2025. (Note: Each year, the top 22% of players between two and three years of service are also granted eligibility for arbitration).

The raises for the Padres’ eight arbitration-eligible players will bring the Opening Day payroll to just over $198 million, according to the Union-Tribune estimate based on roster options of 40 players available to replace departing free agents like Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott, Ha-Seong Kim and Kyle Higashioka.

That’s nearly $40 million more than this year’s starting point ($157.4 million), even with the salary structure of the Padres’ most expensive asset, Manny Machado, still in the game favorable to the team’s 11-year, $350 million extension signed before the 2023 season.

Machado will earn $13 million again in 2025 before increasing to $21 million in 2026 and $40 million in 2027.

Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth are also among the Padres receiving significant raises through their contract structures.

The Union-Tribune’s $198 million projection assumes left-hander Wandy Peralta will opt for 2025 after seeing his ERA rise from 2.83 in 2023 to 3.99 in 2024 and an $8 million mutual option. Dollars for the injured Kim will not be exercised, leaving the Padres hanging on for a $2 million buyout.

Note: The league minimum in 2025 will be $760,000. The Padres determine the salaries of players who are not eligible for arbitration.