Understanding the impact of climate change can be difficult when viewed in terms of global temperature changes. To make it more accessible, researchers at MIT introduced a concept called “outdoor days.”

This approach measures the number of days per year in a given location that the weather is suitable for typical outdoor activities – such as walking, gardening or eating outdoors – without it being too hot or too cold .

A localized perspective on global change

In a previous study, researchers applied the concept of outdoor days to assess the impact of climate change in different countries.

The analysis found that much of the South would see a significant reduction in the number of days spent outdoors, while some areas of the North could see a slight increase.

Building on these findings, the team now focused on different parts of the United States, dividing the country into nine climate regions.

Experts found that regions such as Florida and the Southeast could face a significant decrease in the number of days spent outdoors, while the Northwest could see a slight increase.

Connecting climate change to everyday life

“This is something very new in our attempt to understand the impacts of climate change, in addition to extreme changes,” said lead author Yeon-Woo Choi, a postdoctoral researcher at MIT.

The method aims to show how global climate change can directly affect people’s daily experiences rather than focusing only on overall temperature trends or extreme weather events like hurricanes.

“To my knowledge, no one else is taking the same approach” to assessing local climate impacts, he added. “I hope many others will follow our approach to better understand how climate can affect our daily lives. »

Climate extremes versus reality

The study explored two climate scenarios: one in which global efforts significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a “worst-case scenario” in which emissions continue to rise unchecked.

Using these scenarios with 32 global climate models, the researchers found consistent trends across all models. The study’s lead author, Elfatih Eltahir, a climate change expert at MIT, suggests the reality may lie between the extremes.

Eltahir does not think we will act as aggressively as the low emissions scenario suggests, nor as carelessly as the high emissions scenario. He predicts that “perhaps reality will emerge in the middle, towards the end of the century.”

Outdoor Days Across the United States

By analyzing temperature trends from 1961 to 2020 and projecting them through the end of this century, researchers found notable changes in outdoor days.

The southeastern United States is expected to face significant impacts, with fewer days suitable for outdoor activities.

“It appears that climate change is going to have a significant impact on the Southeast in terms of reducing the number of days spent outdoors,” Eltahir said, which could affect quality of life, tourism and attractiveness. retirees in these regions.

Surprisingly, the study found that one of the regions that would benefit slightly is the Northwest, although the gain is limited.

The Northwest could see an increase of about 14% in days spent outdoors by the end of the century, compared to the period from 1976 to 2005. In contrast, the Southwest could see a average loss of 23% in number of days spent outdoors.

Outdoor days and economic activities

The study also examined the relationship between outdoor days and economic activities like tourism, using visitation data from the US National Park Service.

“Taking seasonal variations into account, we find a clear link between the number of outdoor days and the number of tourist visits to the United States,” Choi explained.

Seasonal changes and outdoor activities

Although the total annual number of days spent outdoors may not change dramatically in many regions, their seasonal distribution could change.

As summers become hotter, spring and fall may replace summer as the best seasons for outdoor activities. Eltahir notes that this shift is already apparent in places like Florida, where “the most pleasant time of year is spring and fall, and summer is not the best time of year.” .

To enable individuals to explore how climate change might affect their own experiences, researchers have developed an online tool.

This tool allows users to set their own comfort ranges for outdoor temperatures and see how their number of outdoor days may change over time.

For the study, researchers used a standard range of 10 to 25 degrees Celsius (50 to 77 degrees Fahrenheit), which represents the “thermoneutral zone” where the human body does not need to generate additional heat or sweat. to cool down.

“If you don’t agree with how we define an outdoor day, you can define one yourself, and then you’ll see what the impacts are on your number of outdoor days and their seasonality “, explained Eltahir.

Making climate change more accessible

Eltahir noted that the idea behind the concept of outdoor days arose from the realization that people’s understanding of climate change is based on the assumption that climate change is something that will happen in the future. and that will happen to someone else.

“It won’t affect them directly. And I think that contributes to the fact that we are not doing enough,” Eltahir said.

By focusing on everyday experiences, the Outdoor Days concept aims to make climate change more accessible and immediate.

“It brings the concept of climate change home, brings it into daily personal activities. I hope people find this helpful in bridging this gap and allowing for a better understanding and appreciation of the issue,” Eltahir said.

“And I hope it helps lead to sound, science-based policies around climate change.”

The study is published in the journal Geophysical research letters.

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