HAVANA (AP) — Cuba’s large-scale blackouts that left 10 million people without power this month might not have happened if the government had developed more solar power to shore up its failing power grid, as promised, some experts say.

In a country full of sunshine, Cuban officials have long had an opportunity to promote solar energy as a solution to the nation’s energy problems. But October’s widespread outages – the worst power outage the island has seen in years – show little progress has been made.

“If you scaled up solar, solar farms, residential solar and storage, you could mostly avoid the problems they have,” said Dan Whittle, associate vice president of the Caribbean Resilient Practice at the Environmental Defense Fund, an advocacy group. “But they haven’t really developed the policies needed to do that.”

Cuban officials blame the power outages on the U.S. trade embargo and other sanctions, the pandemic’s effects on tourism and emigration, all of which are inhibiting the Cuban economy.

But experts say the government has not updated its internal policies regarding foreign ownership and private financing, particularly for critical solar projects, and is still focused on petroleum fuels. This is despite the fact that under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the Cuban government committed to having 37% of its electricity come from renewable energy by 2030, an ambitious increase from the initial target of 24%.

John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuban Business and Economic Council Inc., said there was a lot of hope in the business community two years ago when the United States changed its policy allowing U.S. investment in Cuban private companies. But the Cuban government has failed to pass the necessary regulations to allow money to start flowing to the private sector, he said.

“So all these investments and financing, not only from the United States but from other countries… that are willing to take a chance on Cuba, are sitting idly, and that’s hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars ” he said.

The share of Cuba’s electricity coming from renewable sources like solar energy and the burning of sugar cane waste has increased only slightly, from 3.8% in 2012 to 5% in 2022, according to a study by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School and EDF. This is a very small change at a time when solar and wind power have grown significantly globally and costs have fallen.

Almost all of the country’s electricity – 95% – comes from burning fossil fuels. Much of this production comes from the burning of crude oil, a particularly polluting form of production.

China, one of Cuba’s largest trading partners, makes 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, and they are cheap, according to energy data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie. China pledged in March to build 92 solar parks on the island that are expected to add more than 2,000 megawatts of power, and reports in June said China had donated three solar parks that are expected to add 1 000 more. But this business relationship has not yet led to a development that would at least keep the lights on during the day. The entire country had only 252 megawatts of solar power at the end of 2022.

Kavulich said even China has its limits. The Chinese private sector’s view, he said, is that Cuba “doesn’t seem to be making any effort to pay the money it owes.”

“The Cuban utility is the only buyer and it’s a risky investment,” Whittle said. European leaders tell him that they “simply cannot encourage in good faith their countries’ companies to invest in Cuba.”

Cuban officials have acknowledged in recent days that a greater spread of solar power would have helped alleviate some of the misery caused by recent outages. The energy minister and head of the country’s electric utility encouraged Cubans to buy rooftop solar systems coupled with batteries, instead of the gas and diesel generators purchased by Cubans who have them. means.

“We are thinking” about some regulations that would boost these solar energy purchases, said the head of the national electricity company, Alfredo López.

Cuba has faced frequent power outages for decades. In addition to the U.S. economic embargo, officials cited aging and lack of maintenance of power plants, increased demand for air conditioning and fuel shortages for the lack of electricity. The country relies on imported fuel to meet its electricity needs, notably from oil-rich allies Venezuela, Mexico and Russia.

This month’s crisis, which has seen institutions including schools closed, gas stations closed and people forced to cook their food on wood stoves in the streets, has begun with the breakdown of one of the island’s main power plants.

Human-caused climate change has contributed to extreme weather events that also regularly affect Cuba’s power grid. Despair over the inability to carry out basic activities has sparked recent street protests.

Whittle emphasized that the country has no shortage of good climate scientists. Korey Silverman-Roati, a senior researcher in carbon management and negative emissions at the Sabin Center, said the Cuban government is trying. “There has certainly been a desire and attempts to build renewable energy infrastructure,” he said. “It just didn’t happen.”

On the island, technicians are working to install 26 solar projects in different provinces, López told state media last week.

Installations will increase fivefold over the next decade, said Lídice Vaillant, director of the Photovoltaic Research Laboratory at the University of Havana.

Besides strong sunlight, Cuba is a good candidate for solar energy. A significant portion of its electricity comes from small power plants located throughout the country. Solar power could be added or removed at these locations. But that hasn’t happened yet.

“I think there’s still this lingering belief at the highest levels of government that, you know, fossil fuels really are the best solution,” Whittle said.

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Rodriguez reported from Havana, St. John from Detroit and Lobet from New York.

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