The continuation of climate policies implemented by the nearly 200 countries signatories to the Paris Agreement “will lead to a catastrophic increase in (global) temperature of up to 3.1 degrees”, warned the United Nations Climate Change Program. environment (UNEP) in its latest “emissions gap”. ” report.

It is still technically possible to achieve the key Paris goal of containing global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial times, he concludes, “but only with massive global mobilization led by the G20 to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today. .

The G20 countries are the richest countries in the world and were responsible for 77% of global emissions in 2023.

Current commitments for 2030 are not being met, and even if they are, the rise in temperatures will only be limited to 2.6 to 2.8 degrees, the report adds, which will have growing catastrophic consequences for the planet.

“The time for the climate crisis has arrived. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – now, before the next round of climate commitments – otherwise the 1.5 degree target will soon be dead,” said the Director of UNEP, Inger Andersen.

“I urge every nation: no more hot wind, please. Use the upcoming Cop29 talks to step up action now… then do everything you can to get on the path to 1.5 degrees of warming. Even if the global temperature rises above 1.5 degrees – and the chances of that happening increase every day – we must continue to fight for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world.

She said every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of “lives saved, economies protected, damage avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to quickly bring down any temperature exceedances”.

UNEP provides an annual review of the gap between the direction of global emissions from countries’ current commitments – set out in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and the direction they should take to limit warming to 1 .5 degree. It also explores ways to bridge the gap. This year’s report feeds into negotiations at Cop29 in Azerbaijan next month, before a new set of NDCs are presented at Cop30 in Brazil next year.

The message “More hot air…please!” » The report finds a failure to raise ambitions in new NDCs, and even starting to meet current NDCs immediately would put the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees over the of this century. “This would have debilitating consequences for people, the planet and economies. »

The consequences of late action are also highlighted. The required reductions are relative to 2019 levels, but emissions have since reached a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. Although this represents only a marginal difference from the required overall reductions of 2019 to 2030, UNEP says the delay in this action means that 7.5 percent of emissions must be reduced each year until 2035 by 1.5 degrees, and 4 percent by 2 degrees. The magnitude of required annual reductions will increase with each year of delay.

Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind power could generate 27 percent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 percent in 2035. Action on forests could generate around 20 percent of the potential over the two years. Other interesting options include energy efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the building, transport and industrial sectors.

“This potential illustrates that it is possible to achieve the Cop28 goals of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030 , to abandon fossil fuels and to conserve, protect and restore nature and ecosystems. » says UNEP.