Tis the season for climate change report cards.

Every year, the United Nations assesses whether countries are on track to reduce their carbon emissions and limit global warming.

The score this year: needs more improvement than ever.

Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new record in 2023, and if countries don’t change course, the world will experience warming of more than 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit (3.1 degrees Celsius) by the end of the century.

That would exceed targets set in the 2015 Paris climate accord, in which countries agreed to try to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

These are the findings of a new report from the United Nations Environment Program, which tracks how quickly countries are reducing heat emissions from burning fossil fuels.

“The conclusions of this report are quite similar to those of last year: another year without action means we are worse off,” says Anne Olhoff, the report’s chief scientific editor.

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Scientific research shows that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is a crucial benchmark to avoid some of the most serious impacts of climate change. Beyond this level, heat waves and storms become much more destructive. Melting polar ice would cause sea levels to rise and flood coastal cities. Higher ocean temperatures would kill the majority of the planet’s coral reefs. Since the planet is not warming uniformly, the United States would see even more warming than the world average.

To meet the 1.5 degree Celsius target, emissions would need to decline rapidly by the end of this decade, falling 42% from 2019 levels, the report said.

If countries stay on the same path, global emissions could remain virtually unchanged by 2030.

The annual “emissions gap” The report comes just weeks before global climate negotiations at the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. Countries will discuss global efforts to combat climate change and transition away from fossil fuels. The summit will set the stage for next year’s negotiations, when countries are expected to announce more ambitious targets for reducing their climate emissions in the future.

Most countries are not on track to meet their current emissions reduction commitments. Even if countries met these commitments, emissions would only fall by 10% by 2030. This highlights how vital it is for countries to make bigger commitments next year, the report said.

The world has made progress in building more renewable energy capacity. Solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than burning fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, and renewable energy production is reaching historic levels. But global emissions rose again last year due to growing demand for energy from many sectors of the economy, from aviation to data centers to air conditioning. While emissions are starting to decline in the European Union and the United States, they are increasing in China, India and the Russian Federation.

It is still technically possible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees

Although it becomes increasingly difficult to reach the 1.5 degree Celsius target with each passing year, it remains technically possible, the report notes.

To maintain this goal, almost 60% of the world’s electricity would need to come from renewable sources by 2030, according to the report, more than four times the current amount. The report points out, however, that a handful of countries have shown it is possible to adopt renewable energy at an even faster pace, including Denmark, Lithuania and Uruguay.

Reducing deforestation and restoring land could also help reduce emissions, since vegetation helps store carbon dioxide.

Many strategies to rapidly reduce emissions are cost-effective, the report said, especially given the far-reaching economic impact of increasingly severe disasters fueled by climate change.

Copyright 2024 NPR