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    Israel-Iran conflict: will the United States support Jerusalem against Tehran?

    Mars Posted on

    By forcing Israel to empty its northern civilian communities since October 2023, Iran and Hezbollah have achieved a decisive short-term victory. This follows the Iranian model: designing long wars of attrition to discourage the Jewish nation while using Lebanese civilians and their homes as human shields to manipulate the West and diplomatically isolate Israel. The most ambitious strategy is to encircle Israel and build an endless war on multiple fronts without having direct consequences on its nuclear, military or economic resources on Iranian territory.

    Will Israel strike Iran and will the US support them?

    So, is Israel’s major offensive against Hezbollah aimed at pushing it north of the Litani River, as called for by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, is it the beginning, or is it the end of its strategy aimed at deterring Iran? The real questions are: How far is Israel from falling off the cliff by not having already targeted the main source of its existential problems, a nuclear Iran? And when is it too late to save yourself?

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in New York on September 24, 2024. (credit: WANA/REUTERS)

    Unfortunately, Iran was aided by the Biden administration’s decision not to fully implement sanctions that were crippling its economy and its ability to support its proxy network of Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. According to a report from The Wall Street Journal On September 23, 2024, President Biden’s envoy to Iran, Robert Malley – who is under investigation by the FBI for allegedly mishandling secret documents – proposed early on in the Biden administration to “remove … American sanctions linked to the Iranian nuclear program”, which is what the Iranians proposed. “pocketed” while demanding even more ambitious concessions.

    The Iranians rightly interpreted this as weakness and desperation on the part of the Americans. According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran continued to march in “two weeks” to “produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon.” Although former President Donald Trump should be commended for ending a terrible deal that guaranteed an industrial-sized Iranian nuclear arsenal over time, he should have had a Plan B after stepping back from executive action.

    Israel’s survival is directly linked to the viability of the Iranian regime, its hegemonic ambitions and its fundamental goal of annihilating the Jewish nation as a central part of its religious mentality. What is needed, but highly unlikely to happen, is a meaningful U.S.-led economic coalition against the leading state sponsor of terrorism, fully implementing sanctions. There is a clear justification, since Iran is thumbing its nose at the International Atomic Energy Agency, by not allowing it to certify its compliance with the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which it is a signatory. .

    Is there any country in the world willing to design or be part of a coalition and strategy aimed at destabilizing the Islamic regime, even if it is convinced that Israel’s survival is at stake? The answer is no, and that likely includes the United States, which views Israel as a critical security partner but views threats from China, North Korea, and Russia as posing a far greater security danger American.

    The Biden administration’s empty rhetoric that Iran should not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons is patently false, as Iran has improved its ability to enrich enough uranium for many atomic bombs in just a few weeks. The national director of American intelligence, Avril Haines, was unable to tell Congress this summer that Iran was not militating with a device. Trump is talking a big game, but would he ask his secretary of state to clearly state that it is in America’s interest to help the Iranian people change their fanatical government?

    No discerning person believes that a future Harris administration, with Secretary of State Chris Murphy or National Security Advisor Phillip Gordon, would advise President Harris to help Israel kinetically end Iran’s nuclear program or would have the courage to declare that the goal of American foreign policy is to the Iranian people and against the regime and to take measures, even non-military, to undermine the authoritarian government, even though we were only days away from a functional atomic weapon.

    Weaponization involves turning uranium gas into metal for a nuclear warhead, improving computer modeling to successfully test a nuclear device, and manufacturing the neutron initiators to ignite an atomic device. The Biden team, until the final quarter turn to a fully functional nuclear weapon is accomplished, claims to view Iran as a non-nuclear weapon state. For Israel, pretending to ignore the progress of the Iranian nuclear project is not an option.

    Israel therefore has a choice, knowing that as long as the Supreme Leader and his acolytes, the Iranian Republican Guards, are in power, their unwavering goal will be to destroy Israel and kill as many Jews as possible. Will Israel accept the inevitable, a nuclear Iran?

    The alternative is to hope that a defensive missile shield protects Israel and that a few nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles among thousands of conventional missiles in an overwhelming Iranian missile barrage will not escape passive defense. Israel’s multi-layered missile shield, even in conjunction with that of the United States, may fail to intercept at least 5% of missiles. Does Israel want to play this Russian roulette with the jihadists in Tehran? It is worth noting that the Biden administration deserves credit for increasing U.S. aid by $5.2 billion this fall for the Iron Beam, Iron Dome, and David Sling anti-missile systems.

    If Israel decides that Iran is the octopus leader to confront directly, it could trigger a devastating war; but waiting for American aid, which is unlikely, would increase the risk that Iran could realize its dream of killing seven million Jews, more than in the Holocaust, with a few million Palestinian Arabs as collateral damage.

    A recent article in The Jerusalem Post highlighted two contradictory opinions. Maj-Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik was “categorical that a war with Iran would now lead to the destruction of Israel. Security expert Yair Ansbacher is convinced that at this point, war with Iran is essential to avoid Israel’s destruction. Brik warned that Iran is supported by Russia, China and North Korea, and that the United States will avoid getting involved in a war that could turn into a world war. He advised building a strategic alliance with Western and moderate Arab countries that would provide a balance of deterrence against Iran and its partners. Trying to thwart the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capability is futile. Ansbacher said now is the time to strike Iran before it achieves its final nuclear breakthrough. If today the West succeeds little in taming the ayatollahs, it will achieve no success when they obtain atomic weapons. Iran will provide a nuclear umbrella for terrorists around the world.

    If Israel decides to go it alone, the goals of destabilizing Iran’s economy are the same as if America joined in, whether through cyberattacks or military attacks. This includes the Bandar Abbas Container Port, where 90% of container shipments pass; the main fossil fuel port on Kharg Island which supplies China with cheap oil; Iranian drone and missile production sites and facilities; and above all, its nuclear enrichment facilities, deeply anchored in the mountains; and its clandestine weapons sites.

    There is little chance that a US administration will openly help Israel. The best hope lies in behind-the-scenes intelligence that allows the United States to assert plausible deniability. The most likely scenario is that the United States slows down its supply lines, as the Biden administration did in the war between Israel and Hamas, by slowing down the process of issuing weapons licenses and deliveries during the Israeli war in Gaza.

    Will the world be a better place if the Iranian people overthrow the current Islamic revolutionary regime in Tehran? In a word, yes, even considering the law’s unknown risk of unintended consequences. Suppose the United States wants stability in the Middle East to shift toward the greater threat of an ascendant and bellicose China. In this case, the best path is to undermine and weaken the malicious anti-American regime as soon as possible.

    But is Iran a threat to America? Yes.

    “The U.S. intelligence community assessed that Iran would threaten Americans – both directly and through proxy attacks – and that Tehran remains committed to developing networks inside the United States,” according to the assessment Intelligence Community Threat Report 2022, published by the Office of the Director. of national intelligence.

    Iran has also entered into death deals with U.S. government officials. On September 24, Blinken said, “we are closely monitoring” a continued threat from Iran against current and former U.S. officials. “This is something that we have been following very intensely for a long time, a constant threat from Iran against a number of senior officials, including former government officials.”

    According to Josef Joffe, a senior scholar at Stanford’s Hoover Institute, “the real problem is Tehran…America’s most powerful enemy in the Greater Middle East…The manual is easy to read.” Strike Israel, Washington’s only reliable ally, and hurt the American giant that it does not dare to confront directly. So demoralize him to drive him off the Middle East chessboard.

    Israel does not have the luxury of waiting. Iran is determined to destroy Israel. Those who doubt this are wrong. The wars of attrition led by Iran over the years will demoralize the Jewish State, and Iran is banking on the recklessness of the international community which does not care about the survival of the Jewish State and would be more than happy to continue trading with Iran. even if he sent a nuclear device towards Tel Aviv.

    America, based on its values-based foreign policy, its national security interests, and to let its allies around the world know that it supports its friends even when difficult choices present themselves, must stand firm stand with Israel against Iran and stand with Iran. people who yearn for freedom and a new government – ​​and for Iran to return to the family of nations. ■

    The writer is director of MEPIN, the Middle East Policy Network, and has been briefing members of Congress and their foreign policy advisors for more than 25 years.

    Mars
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