The San Diego Padres’ explosive offense went scoreless over the final 24 innings of their NLDS game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Most questioned Los Angeles’ ability to go further in October due to various injuries among the pitching staff, but the Dodgers’ bullpen was electric in back-to-back, win-or-go-home games.

As Shohei Ohtani and company march to the NLCS to face the New York Mets for a spot in the World Series, San Diego goes back to the drawing board after what can only be described as a successful campaign. Even after letting Blake Snell walk and hitting the reset button with the Juan Soto trade, the Padres managed to break down in tears after the All-Star break. AJ Preller continues to rank among baseball’s best general managers, finding unique avenues to attract top-tier talent and spending creatively, even though he’s barred from handing $600 million to Soto .

The Padres were arguably the scariest team in the National League playoffs, but a poorly timed cold snap forced them to return home early. It looked like this might be San Diego’s year, but there’s no reason to believe the Padres will go anywhere. This team should be back on the scene in October 2025. Baseball is as unpredictable as any major American sport, but this Padres team is rock solid, from top to bottom.

That said, San Diego’s squad will inevitably look a little different next season. Preller has several impact free agents to juggle and there is simply no way the Friars can keep them all. Here are a few that are aimed at new teams.

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3. Ha-seong Kim is going to be overpaid elsewhere

Ha-seong Kim missed the last two months with a shoulder injury and was not seen during the Padres’ five-game loss to Los Angeles. He now enters free agency, assuming the two sides don’t agree on a paltry $7 million mutual option. It wasn’t Kim’s best season at the plate, but he remains valuable at a high-leverage position. Teams will be lining up to sign such a productive shortstop.

In 2023, Kim finished 14th in NL MVP voting and was a vital cog in the Padres’ success. His offensive numbers have reached 403 AB this season – .233/.330/.370 with 11 homers – but he should bounce back. Its value also extends far beyond hitting. Kim is a dangerous baserunner and a hell of a glove in the middle of the field.

It’s not difficult to find contenders in need of upgrades at shortstop. The Braves, the Yankees, the Tigers – hell, even the Phillies could use some middle-of-the-road help. And those are just the playoff teams. San Diego would surely love to bring Kim back, but with Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth providing more than enough production in the middle of the field and several quality prospects coming in, the motivation isn’t quite there.

Despite his struggles this season, Kim remains one of the most disciplined hitters in MLB. He puts the bat on the ball, even when he’s not hitting for power. Defensive range and arm strength are top-notch, and Kim poses a threat to steal 30+ bases when healthy. Someone missing Willy Adames or a trade with Bo Bichette will drop the bag. Of course, much will depend on how he recovers from surgery to repair a torn labrum.

2. Elias Diaz just doesn’t have the ability to get consistent playing time in San Diego

The Padres selected 2023 All-Star Game MVP Elias Diaz late in the season after the Colorado Rockies placed him on outright waivers. It was a chance for Diaz to latch onto a contender, but he signed a minor league contract and was never seriously involved in the Padres’ game plan.

Diaz ended up becoming San Diego’s third wide receiver behind Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano. Higashioka is also a free agent, so the Padres’ catcher depth chart is somewhat wide open, but one would expect San Diego to bring back its everyday starter. Decent offensive catchers are a valuable commodity in the league, but Higashioka was a vital postseason bat for the Padres and he shouldn’t cost too much to re-sign.

Even if Higashioka ends up elsewhere, it’s hard to imagine Diaz supplanting him in San Diego after being so thoughtful over time. Campusano, at age 26, is established as the long-term heir to the throne of Higashioka. Diaz, 33, is bound to fully test the free agent waters and land with a different contender, likely on a one-year deal to prove it.

He batted a respectable .265 this season, but Diaz’s offensive metrics were concerning across the board. The veteran has a pop time in the 87th percentile and he’s used to deciding games behind the plate, so someone’s going to hang on to that, but Diaz’s All-Star days are probably in the rearview mirror. He was a great deep pickup for San Diego, but this was always destined to be a brief stay.

1. Tanner Scott will get the sack and San Diego won’t overspend

There is a fine line between recognizing the value of an elite bullpen and overspending on bullpen arms. Just ask the Houston Astros, who dropped $95 million on Josh Hader in a doomed deal. Tanner Scott arrived at the trade deadline and was excellent, continuing his dominant All-Star campaign that began with the Miami Marlins.

Scott is probably the best left-handed reliever in the National League. The Padres’ late relief team was among the best in baseball once October arrived. Coughing up some real upside for Scott at the deadline will certainly entice San Diego to bring him back, but the bidding war will get dizzying. Already factor in the depth of the Padres’ bullpen — including a perfectly capable closer in Robert Suarez — and signs point to Scott ending up elsewhere. At some point, San Diego will opt out of the spending war.

Scott finished his season with a 1.75 ERA and 22 saves in 72 appearances. His performance dipped slightly after the trade to San Diego, and it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the 30-year-old’s dominance is after a checkered career. This is just one more reason to swallow the loss in terms of trade capital and let Scott land his uncomfortably large contract elsewhere. Betting on high-leverage relievers can be a dangerous game.

The Padres can always target more bullpen depth at the next trade deadline, or find quality weapons for less elsewhere this winter. Scott has been a great midseason addition, but with so much value placed on pitching depth throughout the league, it seems like a matter of time until the Padres outbid him and say goodbye.