American Catholic voters present challenging opportunities for Trump, Harris: scientists

Catholic voters have always been a key voting bloc in every presidential election, and candidates have competed hard to win their support.

And this year, the battle for their votes has become aggressive as former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that Vice President Kamala Harris is anti-Catholic.

While Harris did not say the same about Trump, she sent a message to Catholic voters that her policies align with their social and political views and priorities. But in fact, scholars who study the role of religion in politics tell ABC News that it’s not easy to apply a single label to the nation’s Catholics.

“It’s very interesting that the Catholic Church is probably one of the few places where you can find people with different views sitting together at Sunday Mass,” Margaret Susan Thompson, professor of history at the Maxwell School of Citizenship at Syracuse University. and public relations, ABC News reported.

Thompson and others said that if past election results are any indication, Catholic turnout and the choices they make at the polls will depend on a variety of factors.

Changing demographics show split in voting patterns

Thompson, who studies Catholic voting trends, said that overall, Catholics have voted more Republican over the past 44 years after abortion became a major campaign issue for Christians in general.

But over these decades, she noted that the composition of American Catholics has also changed as the number of nonwhite Catholics has grown.

Since 2007, the share of white American Catholics has fallen by 8 percentage points, while the share of Hispanics has increased by 4 points, according to the Pew Research Center.

“It changed the map a lot,” Thompson said. “The number of Latino Catholics grew in the South and in swing states like Arizona, and they brought their own perspectives on their faith and beliefs.”

Ryan Burge, an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University who has compiled data on the voting patterns of the county’s religious groups, agrees.

“The Catholic vote is full of contradictions,” Burge said. “They face a lot of cross-pressure. They can be white and still be union members. They may be against LGTBQ rights, but they want better immigration rights.”

Burge told ABC News that increased diversity among Catholics also reflects a shift in the presidential race.

In 2020, 56% of Catholic voters voted Republican, according to data he collected from the Harvard University Collaborative Election Study. However, when the community was broken down by race, 59% of white Catholics voted Republican in the last election, while only 31% of non-white Catholics voted for the GOP.

“We see the same racial trends for most religious groups,” he explained.

Does not comply with the teachings of the Catholic Church.

Thompson said diversity extends to Catholic political views.

For example, Pew found that 61% of all Catholics believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. An ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Catholics would prefer the federal government restore access to abortion, as it did before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“Just because the hierarchy says, ‘this is right, this is wrong,’ doesn’t mean every Catholic will follow their lead,” she said.

Burge also noted that cultural connections beyond religion take into account the individual biases of certain Catholic groups.

For example, he noted that data showed that Latino Catholics are less supportive of advancing LGBTQ rights and socialist ideals than their white and black counterparts.

“I think they’re being pulled in two directions,” he said of Latino Catholics. “They’ve traditionally been Democrats, and we’ve seen that they still vote Democratic in the majority, but they’ve always been culturally conservative. I think that’s where you see a shift in some Hispanic circles voting Republican because of the party’s messaging on these issues.”

A recent ABCNews/Ipsos poll found likely Catholic voters were closely divided in their preferences, 51%-48% Trump-Harris.

“I think they seem to be a more moderate voting bloc. I don’t think they can be taken for granted,” Burge said.

Trump criticized Harris for voting Catholics during the election campaign

Since the start of the election season, the Trump, Biden and Harris campaigns have tried to reach various religious groups.

Trump, in particular, has spoken out at rallies, on social media and in interviews against Harris, calling her anti-Catholic. In a Truth Social post, he claimed that she lost the Catholic vote because of her stance on reproductive rights and that she was “persecuting” the group.

“Any Catholic who votes for Comrade Kamala Harris should have their head examined,” he said in a September Truth Social post.

Harris rarely made direct comments about the Catholic vote during the campaign and did not attend the election. Al Smith’s annual dinner organized by the Archdiocese of New York, saying it was due to scheduling conflicts.

Despite being the first presidential candidate not to attend the dinner in 40 years, she provided a video message that included a skit with Saturday Night Live alum Molly Shannon.

“The Gospel of Luke tells us that faith has the power to shine light on those who live in darkness and to guide our feet into the path of peace. In the spirit of tonight’s dinner, let us recommit ourselves to transcending differences and seeking understanding. and common ground,” she said.

Trump, breaking the soft-hearted, hot atmosphere of the dinner, continued his attacks on Harris at the dinner.

“You can’t do what I just saw on that screen, but my opponent thinks she doesn’t have to be here, which is deeply disrespectful to the event and, in particular, to our great Catholic community. Very disrespectful,” he said.

Rhetoric does little to sway Catholic voters

Despite the media attention, experts said Trump’s rhetoric and his dispute with Harris over the Catholic vote won’t move the needle.

Thompson said there are very few undecided voters remaining and most voters have their preferences locked in for now.

She also noted that Trump’s attacks and messages are no different from the language he has used against other religious groups, such as Jewish voters, Latino voters and black voters.

“That’s his favorite line: ‘They should get their heads checked,’” she said.

Thompson also noted that this sentiment also applies to the Vatican.

Pope Francis weighed in on the election in September and appeared to strike a middle ground, saying “the lesser of two evils must be chosen.”

“Who is the lesser of two evils? This lady or this gentleman? I don’t know,” he told reporters during a press conference.

Francis did not directly name Trump, Harris or any political party, but even while noting the church’s opposition to abortion, he also emphasized a more moderate stance on social issues.

“Sending migrants away, leaving them wherever you want, leaving them… it’s something terrible, it’s evil there. Sending a child away from its mother’s womb is murder, because there is life. We must speak clearly about these things,” he said.

Thompson said the pope has contributed to a major divide among Catholics, with more conservative members rejecting his progressive positions on LGBTQ rights and the environment and more liberal members urging him not to change the church’s position on reproductive rights.

“Everyone selectively listens to the Pope,” she said. “I don’t think his withdrawal of support will really change people’s minds.”

Burge said that ultimately, the things that will influence the Catholic vote are the candidates’ rhetoric and actions in recent days.

“It has always been difficult for politicians to talk about religion without sounding pandering,” he said. “The public just cares about where they are and how they are going to solve the problems that they think are important.”