The Real Reason Latino Voters Are Abandoning Kamala Harris and the Democrats

Democratic support among black voters shows signs of some erosionbut it is Latinos—now the largest racial minority in the country—who could prove to be the deciding factor in the 2024 elections. Hispanics are now the largest ethnic minority in the country, their numbers increasing by 23 percent from 2010 to 2020, and they now make up 62.1 million people, or 18.7 percent, of the total U.S. population. In California, Latinos make up nearly 40 percent of the population.

Unlike African Americans, of whom 80 percent or more are likely to vote Democratic, Latinos are much more evenly split. Democrats’ share of Latino voters, nearly 70 percent in 2016, now only a little more than half. Latinos make up nearly 15 percent of all eligible voters, although their numbers tend to be smaller than other groups and the share could nearly double by 2030. Hispanics could prove decisive in many key states such as Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

In the past, progressives assumed that, as “people of color,” Latinos would be loyal supporters of Democrats. But it is likely that economic factors are more influential than racial considerations in voting patterns. Projections show that between 2020 and 2030, Latinos will make up 78 percent of net new workers in the United States.

It is important to note that Latinos, especially men, occupy a special place in industry, agriculture, transportation and construction. People who work with their hands and small entrepreneurs trend towards the Republican Party, while those who work as yoga instructors, teachers, environmental consultants and lawyers tend to be Democrats. Meanwhile, Black voters are overrepresented in government jobs such as transportation workers and nursing assistants, making up more than 18 percent of the federal government’s workforce, about 50 percent higher than their share of the population. Hispanics make up less than 10 percent of the federal workforce, about half their share of the population.

Hispanics also figure prominently in the small business sector. They start more businesses per capita than any other racial or ethnic group. The majority of Hispanic small businesses are small and family-owned, representing the fastest growing group of entrepreneurs in the United States. Over the past decade, the number of Hispanic business owners has grown by 34 percent, compared to just 1 percent among all business owners. Like manual workers, small business owners tend to lean toward the Republican Party, perhaps drawn by its promises to curb crime, cut taxes and ease regulation.

In addition to these economic considerations, cultural factors also play a role. In general, Latinos—and most immigrants—tend to be somewhat more religious and culturally conservative than white Americans, and to a much greater extent than today’s culturally ultra-progressive Democrats. Just as only four percent identify with the term “Latino,” coined by scholars and activists, most Latinos are less interested in fighting “white supremacy” than in improving their livelihoods and families.

Immigration wasn’t quite the winner that Democrats long believed. There is surprisingly little support from, for example, Biden-Harris Latino Immigration PolicyWith. The vast majority of Americans, according to a June CBS News poll, and at least half of Hispanics favor deporting undocumented migrants. Most also support the idea that people must demonstrate citizenship status to be eligible to vote, but this position is widely rejected by progressives.

Concerns about massive illegal immigration reflect economic reality. The Congressional Budget Office is warning that a recent “surge in immigration,” much of it undocumented, could impact wages for low-income workers, many of whom are Latino. In addition, about half of all Latinos, Pew notes, attribute the current wave to an increase in crime in their communities. Those sentiments are likely to be especially strong in places like south Texas, where Democrats once dominated. areas have shifted more towards the Republican Party.

However, whatever their fears, Latinos also inspire optimism that is desperately needed right now. Like most immigrants, they still believe in and cherish the American Dream. When asked what the most important factors for success in the United States are, 94 percent answered “a strong work ethic and hard work.” They generally want more of America, not less, and tend to be more optimistic about the future than non-Hispanic whites. Hispanics also represent the fastest growing population in the military, making up about 16 percent of all active-duty military personnel. The number of Latino police officers increased by more than 80 percent from 1997 to 2020.

For the most part, Latinos do not want the end of the American dream, but access to it. But this does not mean that they are inexorably constantly moving to the right. Even if they object to some progressive approaches, most are working class, and many favor an expanded role for government in stimulating economic growth. If they lean more toward the Republicans, it is toward Trump’s populists rather than the free-market libertarianism embraced by many college-educated conservatives.

In the coming decades, especially if the current wave of migrants becomes legal citizens, Latinos look set to shape America’s future and its politics. For the most part this can be very good.

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a senior fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas.

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